Time series prediction, end-to-end

This notebook illustrates several models to find the next value of a time-series:

  1. Linear
  2. DNN
  3. CNN
  4. RNN

In [ ]:
# Change these to try this notebook out
BUCKET = "cloud-training-demos-ml"
PROJECT = "cloud-training-demos"
REGION = "us-central1"
SEQ_LEN = 50

In [ ]:
import os
os.environ['BUCKET'] = BUCKET
os.environ['PROJECT'] = PROJECT
os.environ['REGION'] = REGION
os.environ['SEQ_LEN'] = str(SEQ_LEN)
os.environ['TFVERSION'] = "1.13"

Simulate some time-series data

Essentially a set of sinusoids with random amplitudes and frequencies.


In [ ]:
import tensorflow as tf
print(tf.__version__)

In [ ]:
import numpy as np
import seaborn as sns

def create_time_series():
    freq = (np.random.random()*0.5) + 0.1  # 0.1 to 0.6
    ampl = np.random.random() + 0.5  # 0.5 to 1.5
    noise = [np.random.random()*0.3 for i in range(SEQ_LEN)] # -0.3 to +0.3 uniformly distributed
    x = np.sin(np.arange(0,SEQ_LEN) * freq) * ampl + noise
    return x

flatui = ["#9b59b6", "#3498db", "#95a5a6", "#e74c3c", "#34495e", "#2ecc71"]
for i in range(0, 5):
    sns.tsplot( create_time_series(), color=flatui[i%len(flatui)] );  # 5 series

In [ ]:
def to_csv(filename, N):
    with open(filename, 'w') as ofp:
        for lineno in range(0, N):
            seq = create_time_series()
            line = ",".join(map(str, seq))
            ofp.write(line + '\n')

import os
try:
    os.makedirs("data/sines/"")
except OSError:
    pass
to_csv("data/sines/train-1.csv", 1000)  # 1000 sequences
to_csv("data/sines/valid-1.csv", 250)

In [ ]:
!head -5 data/sines/*-1.csv

Train model locally

Make sure the code works as intended.

The model.py and task.py containing the model code is in sinemodel/

Complete the TODOs in model.py before proceeding!

Once you've completed the TODOs, set --model below to the appropriate model (linear,dnn,cnn,rnn,rnn2 or rnnN) and run it locally for a few steps to test the code.


In [ ]:
%%bash
DATADIR=$(pwd)/data/sines
OUTDIR=$(pwd)/trained/sines
rm -rf $OUTDIR
gcloud ml-engine local train \
    --module-name=sinemodel.task \
    --package-path=${PWD}/sinemodel \
    -- \
    --train_data_path="${DATADIR}/train-1.csv" \
    --eval_data_path="${DATADIR}/valid-1.csv"  \
    --output_dir=${OUTDIR} \
    --model=linear --train_steps=10 --sequence_length=$SEQ_LEN

Cloud ML Engine

Now to train on Cloud ML Engine with more data.


In [ ]:
import shutil
shutil.rmtree(path = "data/sines", ignore_errors = True)
os.makedirs("data/sines/")
for i in range(0,10):
    to_csv("data/sines/train-{}.csv".format(i), 1000)  # 1000 sequences
    to_csv("data/sines/valid-{}.csv".format(i), 250)

In [ ]:
%%bash
gsutil -m rm -rf gs://${BUCKET}/sines/*
gsutil -m cp data/sines/*.csv gs://${BUCKET}/sines

In [ ]:
%%bash
for MODEL in linear dnn cnn rnn rnn2; do
    OUTDIR=gs://${BUCKET}/sinewaves/${MODEL}
    JOBNAME=sines_${MODEL}_$(date -u +%y%m%d_%H%M%S)
    gsutil -m rm -rf $OUTDIR
    gcloud ml-engine jobs submit training $JOBNAME \
        --region=$REGION \
        --module-name=sinemodel.task \
        --package-path=${PWD}/sinemodel \
        --job-dir=$OUTDIR \
        --staging-bucket=gs://$BUCKET \
        --scale-tier=BASIC_GPU \
        --runtime-version=$TFVERSION \
        -- \
        --train_data_path="gs://${BUCKET}/sines/train*.csv" \
        --eval_data_path="gs://${BUCKET}/sines/valid*.csv"  \
        --output_dir=$OUTDIR \
        --train_steps=3000 --sequence_length=$SEQ_LEN --model=$MODEL
done

Monitor training with TensorBoard

Use this cell to launch tensorboard. If tensorboard appears blank try refreshing after 5 minutes


In [ ]:
from google.datalab.ml import TensorBoard
TensorBoard().start("gs://{}/sinewaves".format(BUCKET))

In [ ]:
for pid in TensorBoard.list()["pid"]:
    TensorBoard().stop(pid)
    print("Stopped TensorBoard with pid {}".format(pid))

Results

Complete the below table with your own results! Then compare your results to the results in the solution notebook.

Model Sequence length # of steps Minutes RMSE
linear 50 3000 - -
dnn 50 3000 - -
cnn 50 3000 - -
rnn 50 3000 - -
rnn2 50 3000 - -
rnnN 50 3000 - -

Copyright 2017 Google Inc. Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. See the License for the specific language governing permissions and limitations under the License