In [1]:
import first
live, firsts, others = first.MakeFrames()
df = live[live.prglngth>30]
The following are the only variables I found that have a statistically significant effect on pregnancy length.
In [21]:
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
model = smf.ols('prglngth ~ birthord==1 + race==2 + nbrnaliv>1', data=df)
results = model.fit()
results.summary()
Out[21]:
OLS Regression Results
Dep. Variable: prglngth R-squared: 0.019
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.018
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 15.05
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2014 Prob (F-statistic): 3.48e-12
Time: 16:04:17 Log-Likelihood: -6501.2
No. Observations: 3109 AIC: 1.301e+04
Df Residuals: 3104 BIC: 1.304e+04
Df Model: 4
coef std err t P>|t| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept 38.7087 0.087 446.225 0.000 38.539 38.879
birthord == 1[T.True] 0.1329 0.073 1.832 0.067 -0.009 0.275
race == 2[T.True] 0.1691 0.076 2.236 0.025 0.021 0.317
nbrnaliv > 1[T.True] -2.0538 0.292 -7.043 0.000 -2.626 -1.482
workpreg -0.0079 0.018 -0.441 0.659 -0.043 0.027
Omnibus: 452.571 Durbin-Watson: 1.784
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1520.144
Skew: -0.722 Prob(JB): 0.00
Kurtosis: 6.106 Cond. No. 29.1
Let's go mining for variables that predict sex ratio.
In [22]:
import regression
join = regression.JoinFemResp(live)
In [31]:
def GoMining(df):
"""Searches for variables that predict birth weight.
df: DataFrame of pregnancy records
returns: list of (rsquared, variable name) pairs
"""
df['boy'] = (df.babysex==1).astype(int)
variables = []
for name in df.columns:
try:
if df[name].var() < 1e-7:
continue
formula='boy ~ agepreg + ' + name
model = smf.logit(formula, data=df)
nobs = len(model.endog)
if nobs < len(df)/2:
continue
results = model.fit()
except:
continue
variables.append((results.prsquared, name))
return variables
variables = GoMining(join)
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Current function value: 0.693018
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693022
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693026
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692997
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693009
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693005
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692988
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693025
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692998
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693024
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692992
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693027
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692995
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693009
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693005
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692779
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692991
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692644
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693020
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692625
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693024
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692858
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693025
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692820
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692864
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693010
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692903
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693014
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692912
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693022
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692889
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693010
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692978
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692986
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692828
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692990
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692838
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692986
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692987
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693003
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692940
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692985
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692955
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693019
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692862
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692913
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693017
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692825
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693001
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692742
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692993
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692570
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692999
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692668
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693004
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692766
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692791
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693033
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692730
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693033
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692658
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692996
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692704
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693046
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692603
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693058
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692822
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693085
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692743
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693078
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693027
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693014
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692815
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693025
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692964
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692889
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692805
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693075
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692964
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692980
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693018
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692984
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692994
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692952
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692689
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692830
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692937
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692766
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692742
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692705
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692849
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692937
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692906
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692849
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693027
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692699
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692958
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692901
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693015
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693018
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693014
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693002
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692994
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693027
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693006
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692975
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693019
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692952
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692885
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692974
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692828
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692609
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693014
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692905
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693070
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692937
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692866
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693020
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693024
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693024
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692937
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693027
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692986
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692976
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693002
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693025
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692603
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692978
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692847
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693003
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693115
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693046
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692929
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693006
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692872
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692887
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692849
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693017
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693001
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693014
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693019
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692944
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692965
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692991
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693026
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693004
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692938
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692946
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693012
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692990
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692966
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692924
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693002
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693026
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693020
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693000
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693009
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692870
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692833
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692995
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692998
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693020
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693016
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692633
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692970
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692830
Iterations 5
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692771
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692982
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693017
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692890
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692899
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692759
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693015
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693024
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693018
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692681
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692936
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692599
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692779
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692852
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692753
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692701
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692968
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692871
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692836
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692834
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692727
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693001
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692996
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692884
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693011
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692847
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692483
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693020
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692861
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692538
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692911
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692673
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692829
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692929
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692757
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692921
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692908
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Warning: Maximum number of iterations has been exceeded.
Current function value: 0.692957
Iterations: 35
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693024
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692975
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693025
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692889
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693018
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693000
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692987
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692983
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693015
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692900
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692898
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692972
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693000
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692916
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692917
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692904
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693026
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693022
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692855
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692972
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693000
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692806
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692987
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692962
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693016
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692900
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692898
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692972
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693000
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692973
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692931
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692879
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692983
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692904
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692898
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692972
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693000
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693008
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693026
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692960
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693025
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693019
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693002
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692946
Iterations 5
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693029
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693015
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692975
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693028
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693019
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693023
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693002
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692946
Iterations 5
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692998
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693008
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693030
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693027
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693020
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692975
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693026
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693015
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693016
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693002
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692946
Iterations 5
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692958
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693012
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692956
Iterations 4
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692938
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692918
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692923
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693017
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693055
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692796
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693021
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692997
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692802
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693013
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692952
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692872
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693018
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.693070
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692726
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692873
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692933
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692728
Iterations 3
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.692775
Iterations 3
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Here are the 30 variables that yield the highest pseudo-$R^2$ value.
In [32]:
regression.MiningReport(variables)
totalwgt_lb 0.00804663447664
birthwgt_lb 0.00783469107423 BD-3 BIRTHWEIGHT IN POUNDS - 1ST BABY FROM THIS PREGNANCY
lbw1 0.00110496535201 LOW BIRTHWEIGHT - BABY 1
nplaced 0.00107176328366 # OF R'S BIO CHILDREN SHE PLACED FOR ADOPTION (BASED ON BPA)
constat3 0.00107097717817 3RD PRIORITY CODE FOR CURRENT CONTRACEPTIVE STATUS
fmarout5 0.00084452858083 FORMAL MARITAL STATUS AT PREGNANCY OUTCOME
frsteatd 0.000816585752415 AGE (IN MOS) WHEN 1ST SUPPLEMENTED - 1ST FROM THIS PREG
rmarout6 0.000793145080913 INFORMAL MARITAL STATUS AT PREGNANCY OUTCOME - 6 CATEGORIES
infever 0.000772731734124 EVER USED INFERTILITY SERVICES OF ANY KIND
splstwk1 0.000727710547487 IF-1 H/P DOING WHAT LAST WEEK (EMPLOYMENT STATUS) 1ST MENTION
nummult41 0.000703107395067 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (MAY 2002)
nummult34 0.000688515665856 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (OCT 2001)
outcom02 0.00067518482234 OUTCOME OF PREGNANCY - 2ND
pmarpreg 0.000661046520124 WHETHER PREGNANCY ENDED BEFORE R'S 1ST MARRIAGE (PREMARITALLY)
brnout_r 0.000621690333737 IB-8 R BORN OUTSIDE OF US
brnout 0.000621690333737 IB-8 R BORN OUTSIDE OF US
nummult17 0.000600411677943 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (MAY 2000)
educmom 0.000587560821584 MOTHER'S (OR MOTHER-FIGURE'S) EDUCATION
marout03 0.000573537821728 FORMAL MARITAL STATUS WHEN PREGNANCY ENDED - 3RD
numfirsm1 0.00057283427147 TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONSES IN EB-1 FIRSMETH - PRESCRIPTION METHODS
nummult43 0.000569081526666 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (JUL 2002)
nummult16 0.000568970901225 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (APR 2000)
nummult39 0.000554509562327 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (MAR 2002)
agepreg_i 0.000547750841445 AGEPREG IMPUTATION FLAG
nummult35 0.000547536020922 NUMBER OF METHODS REPORTED IN (NOV 2001)
lbw1_i 0.000540448123631 LBW1 IMPUTATION FLAG
coh1dur 0.000535508320214 DURATION (IN MONTHS) OF R'S FIRST COHABITATION
births5 0.000517297177993 NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS IN LAST 5 YEARS
p1yhsage 0.000514263746852 CI-6 PARTNER'S AGE AT 1ST SEX-1ST REPORTED PARTNER IN LAST 12 MOS
abort12 0.000505840942107 FA-3B RECEIVED ABORTION LAST 12 MONTHS
Eliminating variables that are not known during pregnancy and others that are fishy for various reasons, here's the best model I could find:
In [42]:
formula='boy ~ agepreg + fmarout5==5 + infever==1'
model = smf.logit(formula, data=join)
results = model.fit()
results.summary()
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.691983
Iterations 4
Out[42]:
Logit Regression Results
Dep. Variable: boy No. Observations: 9148
Model: Logit Df Residuals: 9144
Method: MLE Df Model: 3
Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2014 Pseudo R-squ.: 0.001525
Time: 16:22:43 Log-Likelihood: -6330.3
converged: True LL-Null: -6339.9
LLR p-value: 0.0002326
coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept -0.1863 0.116 -1.606 0.108 -0.414 0.041
fmarout5 == 5[T.True] 0.1493 0.048 3.087 0.002 0.054 0.244
infever == 1[T.True] 0.2096 0.063 3.304 0.001 0.085 0.334
agepreg 0.0053 0.004 1.252 0.211 -0.003 0.014
Now let's build a model to predict the respondent's parity (number of babies born alive). I used a nonlinear model of age. The age3 term is probably overkill, but I thought I would show that it might not be a crazy choice. It doesn't have much effect on the predictions.
In [65]:
join.numbabes.replace([97], np.nan, inplace=True)
join['age2'] = join.age_r**2
join['age3'] = join.age_r**3
In [73]:
formula='numbabes ~ age_r + age2 + age3 + C(race) + totincr + educat'
model = smf.poisson(formula, data=join)
results = model.fit()
results.summary()
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Current function value: 1.677637
Iterations 7
Out[73]:
Poisson Regression Results
Dep. Variable: numbabes No. Observations: 9148
Model: Poisson Df Residuals: 9140
Method: MLE Df Model: 7
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2014 Pseudo R-squ.: 0.03665
Time: 10:20:25 Log-Likelihood: -15347.
converged: True LL-Null: -15931.
LLR p-value: 6.721e-248
coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept -3.2731 0.719 -4.551 0.000 -4.683 -1.863
C(race)[T.2] -0.1403 0.014 -9.683 0.000 -0.169 -0.112
C(race)[T.3] -0.0959 0.024 -3.957 0.000 -0.143 -0.048
age_r 0.3744 0.069 5.433 0.000 0.239 0.510
age2 -0.0090 0.002 -4.158 0.000 -0.013 -0.005
age3 7.12e-05 2.2e-05 3.237 0.001 2.81e-05 0.000
totincr -0.0185 0.002 -9.858 0.000 -0.022 -0.015
educat -0.0463 0.003 -15.988 0.000 -0.052 -0.041
In [74]:
import pandas
columns = ['age_r', 'age2', 'age3', 'race', 'totincr', 'educat']
new = pandas.DataFrame([[35, 35**2, 35**3, 1, 14, 16]], columns=columns)
results.predict(new)
Out[74]:
array([ 2.47393019])
In [76]:
formula='rmarital ~ age_r + age2 + C(race) + totincr + educat'
model = smf.mnlogit(formula, data=join)
results = model.fit()
results.summary()
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Current function value: 1.092083
Iterations 8
Out[76]:
MNLogit Regression Results
Dep. Variable: rmarital No. Observations: 9148
Model: MNLogit Df Residuals: 9113
Method: MLE Df Model: 30
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2014 Pseudo R-squ.: 0.1661
Time: 10:22:24 Log-Likelihood: -9990.4
converged: True LL-Null: -11981.
LLR p-value: 0.000
rmarital=2 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept 8.9153 0.792 11.251 0.000 7.362 10.468
C(race)[T.2] -0.9260 0.087 -10.705 0.000 -1.096 -0.756
C(race)[T.3] -0.6335 0.133 -4.747 0.000 -0.895 -0.372
age_r -0.3567 0.050 -7.132 0.000 -0.455 -0.259
age2 0.0047 0.001 6.054 0.000 0.003 0.006
totincr -0.1301 0.011 -11.475 0.000 -0.152 -0.108
educat -0.1940 0.018 -10.534 0.000 -0.230 -0.158
rmarital=3 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept 2.9927 2.970 1.007 0.314 -2.829 8.815
C(race)[T.2] -0.3963 0.235 -1.685 0.092 -0.857 0.065
C(race)[T.3] 0.0650 0.336 0.194 0.846 -0.593 0.723
age_r -0.3141 0.174 -1.806 0.071 -0.655 0.027
age2 0.0064 0.003 2.532 0.011 0.001 0.011
totincr -0.3217 0.032 -10.135 0.000 -0.384 -0.259
educat -0.1093 0.048 -2.266 0.023 -0.204 -0.015
rmarital=4 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept -3.6475 1.193 -3.059 0.002 -5.985 -1.310
C(race)[T.2] -0.3303 0.091 -3.641 0.000 -0.508 -0.153
C(race)[T.3] -0.8227 0.170 -4.853 0.000 -1.155 -0.490
age_r 0.1238 0.070 1.763 0.078 -0.014 0.261
age2 -0.0008 0.001 -0.814 0.416 -0.003 0.001
totincr -0.2288 0.011 -20.058 0.000 -0.251 -0.206
educat 0.0661 0.016 4.015 0.000 0.034 0.098
rmarital=5 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept -2.3978 1.269 -1.889 0.059 -4.886 0.090
C(race)[T.2] -1.0493 0.101 -10.366 0.000 -1.248 -0.851
C(race)[T.3] -0.6065 0.154 -3.937 0.000 -0.908 -0.305
age_r 0.2084 0.077 2.699 0.007 0.057 0.360
age2 -0.0030 0.001 -2.619 0.009 -0.005 -0.001
totincr -0.2900 0.014 -20.314 0.000 -0.318 -0.262
educat -0.0176 0.021 -0.835 0.404 -0.059 0.024
rmarital=6 coef std err z P>|z| [95.0% Conf. Int.]
Intercept 8.1722 0.797 10.252 0.000 6.610 9.734
C(race)[T.2] -2.1628 0.079 -27.532 0.000 -2.317 -2.009
C(race)[T.3] -1.9701 0.136 -14.472 0.000 -2.237 -1.703
age_r -0.2188 0.050 -4.337 0.000 -0.318 -0.120
age2 0.0020 0.001 2.505 0.012 0.000 0.004
totincr -0.2888 0.011 -25.418 0.000 -0.311 -0.267
educat -0.0802 0.018 -4.582 0.000 -0.115 -0.046
In [80]:
columns = ['age_r', 'age2', 'race', 'totincr', 'educat']
new = pandas.DataFrame([[25, 25**2, 2, 11, 12]], columns=columns)
results.predict(new)
Out[80]:
array([[ 0.74568869, 0.12829132, 0.0016241 , 0.03280099, 0.02188668,
0.06970823]])
In [ ]:
Content source: wavelets/ThinkStats2
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