Die Integration einer Variante innerhalb einer Kategorie führt automatisch zu einem Uplift der Ö-Rate.



In [196]:

    
import pandas as pd
from pandas import DataFrame
import statsmodels.api as sm
import pylab as pl
AuswertungExcel = pd.read_excel('Auswertung.xlsx')
import numpy as np



In [197]:

    
AuswertungExcel.columns









    Out[197]:





Index([u'overMedian', u'Oeffnungsrate', u'Betreff', u'Kategorie', u'incentive', u'highlight', u'partner', u'satzzeichen', u'anrede', u'Kategoriensumme', u'Kampagne', u'Datum', u'Partner_dm', u'Partner_ebay', u'Partner_Philips', u'Partner_WMF', u'Partner_a.t.u', u'Partner_aral', u'Partner_asstel', u'Partner_blume2000.de', u'Partner_c&a', u'Partner_dehner', u'Partner_expedia', u'Partner_express', u'Partner_galeria', u'Partner_hvb', u'Partner_itunes', u'Partner_linda', u'Partner_mexx', u'Partner_mydays', u'Partner_opel', u'Partner_quelle', u'Partner_real', u'Partner_rewe', u'Partner_sportarena.de', u'Partner_tchibo', u'Partner_telekom', u'Partner_yello', u'Partner_zalando', u'Satzzeiche_!', u'Satzzeiche_.', u'Satzzeiche_?', u'Anrede_anrede', u'Anrede_title', u'Angebot', u'Bestpreisgarantie', u'Exklusiv', u'Geschenk', u'Gewinn', u'Gratis', u'Highlight', u'Jetzt', u'Nur', u'Prämie', u'Punktestand', u'Rabatt', u'Reduziert', u'Sale', u'Schnell', u'Sichern', u'Sparen', u'Wichtig', u'WSV', u'Wünsche', u'Special', u'Incentivierung_%', u'Incentives_200 °p für sie geschenkt', u'Incentives_200 °p geschenkt', u'Incentivierung_doppelt punkten', u'Incentives_doppelte punkte', u'Incentives_extra °p', u'Incentivierung_extra-punkte', u'Incentivierung_fach', u'Incentives_punkte', u'Incentives_punkte-gutschein', u'Incentives_°p'], dtype='object')



In [198]:

    
#Partner
PartnerDataFrame = DataFrame()



In [199]:

    
PartnerDataFrame[[u'overMedian', u'Partner_ebay', u'Partner_Philips', u'Partner_WMF', u'Partner_a.t.u', u'Partner_aral', u'Partner_asstel', u'Partner_blume2000.de', u'Partner_c&a', u'Partner_dehner', u'Partner_expedia', u'Partner_express', u'Partner_galeria', u'Partner_hvb', u'Partner_itunes', u'Partner_linda', u'Partner_mexx', u'Partner_mydays', u'Partner_opel', u'Partner_quelle', u'Partner_real', u'Partner_rewe', u'Partner_sportarena.de', u'Partner_tchibo', u'Partner_telekom', u'Partner_yello', u'Partner_zalando', u'Satzzeiche_!', u'Satzzeiche_.', u'Satzzeiche_?']]=AuswertungExcel[[u'overMedian', u'Partner_ebay', u'Partner_Philips', u'Partner_WMF', u'Partner_a.t.u', u'Partner_aral', u'Partner_asstel', u'Partner_blume2000.de', u'Partner_c&a', u'Partner_dehner', u'Partner_expedia', u'Partner_express', u'Partner_galeria', u'Partner_hvb', u'Partner_itunes', u'Partner_linda', u'Partner_mexx', u'Partner_mydays', u'Partner_opel', u'Partner_quelle', u'Partner_real', u'Partner_rewe', u'Partner_sportarena.de', u'Partner_tchibo', u'Partner_telekom', u'Partner_yello', u'Partner_zalando', u'Satzzeiche_!', u'Satzzeiche_.', u'Satzzeiche_?']]



In [200]:

    
print PartnerDataFrame.std()









    



overMedian               0.500642
Partner_ebay             0.087592
Partner_Philips          0.112787
Partner_WMF              0.165978
Partner_a.t.u            0.087592
Partner_aral             0.101011
Partner_asstel           0.087592
Partner_blume2000.de     0.050702
Partner_c&a              0.050702
Partner_dehner           0.071611
Partner_expedia          0.142107
Partner_express          0.087592
Partner_galeria          0.173129
Partner_hvb              0.050702
Partner_itunes           0.071611
Partner_linda            0.087592
Partner_mexx             0.071611
Partner_mydays           0.101011
Partner_opel             0.123391
Partner_quelle           0.050702
Partner_real             0.101011
Partner_rewe             0.192793
Partner_sportarena.de    0.071611
Partner_tchibo           0.050702
Partner_telekom          0.179960
Partner_yello            0.071611
Partner_zalando          0.101011
Satzzeiche_!             0.460294
Satzzeiche_.             0.050702
Satzzeiche_?             0.133104
dtype: float64



In [207]:

    
X_Kategorien  = PartnerDataFrame[[u'Partner_ebay', u'Partner_WMF', u'Partner_a.t.u', u'Partner_aral', u'Partner_asstel', u'Partner_blume2000.de', u'Partner_c&a', u'Partner_dehner', u'Partner_expedia', u'Partner_express', u'Partner_galeria', u'Partner_hvb', u'Partner_itunes', u'Partner_linda', u'Partner_mexx', u'Partner_mydays', u'Partner_opel', u'Partner_quelle', u'Partner_real', u'Partner_rewe', u'Partner_sportarena.de', u'Partner_tchibo', u'Partner_telekom', u'Partner_yello', u'Partner_zalando',  u'Satzzeiche_?']]
X_Kategorien = sm.add_constant(X_Kategorien)



In [208]:

    
Y_Overmedian = PartnerDataFrame['overMedian']



In [209]:

    
#X_Kategorien



In [210]:

    
X_Kategorien_Train = X_Kategorien
Y_Overmedian_Train = Y_Overmedian



In [211]:

    
logit = sm.Logit(Y_Overmedian_Train,X_Kategorien_Train)



In [212]:

    
result = logit.fit()









    



Warning: Maximum number of iterations has been exceeded.
         Current function value: 0.578713
         Iterations: 35






    



C:\winpython\WinPython-64bit-2.7.9.3\python-2.7.9.amd64\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\base\model.py:466: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
  "Check mle_retvals", ConvergenceWarning)



In [213]:

    
result.summary()









    Out[213]:





Logit Regression Results

  Dep. Variable:     overMedian       No. Observations:       389  


  Model:                Logit         Df Residuals:           362  


  Method:                MLE          Df Model:                26  


  Date:           Fri, 22 May 2015    Pseudo R-squ.:       0.1651  


  Time:               11:00:02        Log-Likelihood:      -225.12 


  converged:            False         LL-Null:             -269.63 


                                    LLR p-value:        7.971e-09




                           coef      std err       z       P>|z|  [95.0% Conf. Int.] 


  const                      0.0509      0.121      0.422   0.673     -0.186     0.287


  Partner_ebay             -15.5223   1618.304     -0.010   0.992  -3187.340  3156.295


  Partner_WMF                1.0477      0.825      1.269   0.204     -0.570     2.665


  Partner_a.t.u             -0.7441      1.231     -0.605   0.545     -3.156     1.668


  Partner_aral             -21.4741   2.24e+04     -0.001   0.999   -4.4e+04   4.4e+04


  Partner_asstel            -0.7441      1.231     -0.605   0.545     -3.156     1.668


  Partner_blume2000.de       8.7827     82.846      0.106   0.916   -153.592   171.157


  Partner_c&a               -8.9072     83.789     -0.106   0.915   -173.130   155.316


  Partner_dehner            28.4660    1.1e+06   2.59e-05   1.000  -2.16e+06  2.16e+06


  Partner_expedia           -0.5617      0.740     -0.759   0.448     -2.013     0.889


  Partner_express          -19.4415   9376.626     -0.002   0.998  -1.84e+04  1.84e+04


  Partner_galeria           10.2870     50.732      0.203   0.839    -89.147   109.721


  Partner_hvb               -8.9072     83.789     -0.106   0.915   -173.130   155.316


  Partner_itunes           -28.5678    1.1e+06  -2.59e-05   1.000  -2.16e+06  2.16e+06


  Partner_linda            -19.4415   9376.626     -0.002   0.998  -1.84e+04  1.84e+04


  Partner_mexx             -28.5678    1.1e+06  -2.59e-05   1.000  -2.16e+06  2.16e+06


  Partner_mydays            -0.0509      1.007     -0.051   0.960     -2.025     1.923


  Partner_opel             -22.8425   3.63e+04     -0.001   0.999  -7.12e+04  7.11e+04


  Partner_quelle            -8.9072     83.789     -0.106   0.915   -173.130   155.316


  Partner_real             -21.4741   2.24e+04     -0.001   0.999   -4.4e+04   4.4e+04


  Partner_rewe               0.6422      0.561      1.145   0.252     -0.457     1.741


  Partner_sportarena.de     28.4660    1.1e+06   2.59e-05   1.000  -2.16e+06  2.16e+06


  Partner_tchibo            42.4563   7.24e+05   5.86e-05   1.000  -1.42e+06  1.42e+06


  Partner_telekom           -0.5209      0.583     -0.894   0.371     -1.663     0.621


  Partner_yello            -28.5678    1.1e+06  -2.59e-05   1.000  -2.16e+06  2.16e+06


  Partner_zalando          -35.7137      2e+07  -1.79e-06   1.000  -3.92e+07  3.92e+07


  Satzzeiche_?              19.6468   7514.486      0.003   0.998  -1.47e+04  1.47e+04



In [ ]:



In [ ]:



In [ ]:

Dep. Variable:	overMedian	No. Observations:	389
Model:	Logit	Df Residuals:	362
Method:	MLE	Df Model:	26
Date:	Fri, 22 May 2015	Pseudo R-squ.:	0.1651
Time:	11:00:02	Log-Likelihood:	-225.12
converged:	False	LL-Null:	-269.63
		LLR p-value:	7.971e-09

	coef	std err	z	P>\|z\|	[95.0% Conf. Int.]
const	0.0509	0.121	0.422	0.673	-0.186 0.287
Partner_ebay	-15.5223	1618.304	-0.010	0.992	-3187.340 3156.295
Partner_WMF	1.0477	0.825	1.269	0.204	-0.570 2.665
Partner_a.t.u	-0.7441	1.231	-0.605	0.545	-3.156 1.668
Partner_aral	-21.4741	2.24e+04	-0.001	0.999	-4.4e+04 4.4e+04
Partner_asstel	-0.7441	1.231	-0.605	0.545	-3.156 1.668
Partner_blume2000.de	8.7827	82.846	0.106	0.916	-153.592 171.157
Partner_c&a	-8.9072	83.789	-0.106	0.915	-173.130 155.316
Partner_dehner	28.4660	1.1e+06	2.59e-05	1.000	-2.16e+06 2.16e+06
Partner_expedia	-0.5617	0.740	-0.759	0.448	-2.013 0.889
Partner_express	-19.4415	9376.626	-0.002	0.998	-1.84e+04 1.84e+04
Partner_galeria	10.2870	50.732	0.203	0.839	-89.147 109.721
Partner_hvb	-8.9072	83.789	-0.106	0.915	-173.130 155.316
Partner_itunes	-28.5678	1.1e+06	-2.59e-05	1.000	-2.16e+06 2.16e+06
Partner_linda	-19.4415	9376.626	-0.002	0.998	-1.84e+04 1.84e+04
Partner_mexx	-28.5678	1.1e+06	-2.59e-05	1.000	-2.16e+06 2.16e+06
Partner_mydays	-0.0509	1.007	-0.051	0.960	-2.025 1.923
Partner_opel	-22.8425	3.63e+04	-0.001	0.999	-7.12e+04 7.11e+04
Partner_quelle	-8.9072	83.789	-0.106	0.915	-173.130 155.316
Partner_real	-21.4741	2.24e+04	-0.001	0.999	-4.4e+04 4.4e+04
Partner_rewe	0.6422	0.561	1.145	0.252	-0.457 1.741
Partner_sportarena.de	28.4660	1.1e+06	2.59e-05	1.000	-2.16e+06 2.16e+06
Partner_tchibo	42.4563	7.24e+05	5.86e-05	1.000	-1.42e+06 1.42e+06
Partner_telekom	-0.5209	0.583	-0.894	0.371	-1.663 0.621
Partner_yello	-28.5678	1.1e+06	-2.59e-05	1.000	-2.16e+06 2.16e+06
Partner_zalando	-35.7137	2e+07	-1.79e-06	1.000	-3.92e+07 3.92e+07
Satzzeiche_?	19.6468	7514.486	0.003	0.998	-1.47e+04 1.47e+04