notebook.community

Edit and run 





In [1]:



    


include("preparation.jl");
include("bayes.jl");
include("simulation.jl");



    


















    






WARNING: Method definition betainvcdf(Number, Number, Array) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/preparation.jl:7 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:10.
WARNING: Method definition max(Real, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/preparation.jl:12 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:12.
WARNING: Method definition normpdf(Array{Float64, 2}) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/preparation.jl:16 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:14.

Simulation and Plot のまとめ

Plotのmethodは以下。()内はmethod名。

  • 州ごとにmunicipalityを候補者二人の得票率を軸とした六つの散布図にプロットする(candcand)
  • 州ごとにmunicipalityの結果を集計し、時系列データとして候補者ごとの得票率をプロットする(state_vote)
  • 州ごとにmunicipalityを、縦軸を候補者を合算した投票率とした散布図にプロットする。玉の大きさで別の指標も観れるようにする。プロットするのは、「横軸を白人/非白人比率、玉の大きさをkerryの得票率」、「横軸をoverba/それ以外の比率、玉の大きさをkerryの得票率」、「横軸を20000以下、玉の大きさをkerryの得票率」の3種類で、それぞれ7,5の35プロットを一枚の画像にする。(demo)
  • すべてのmunicipalityの投票率をヒストグラムで表示(rate_histo)

simulation typeで実装し、methodでsimulationの結果に対する上記のplotを出せるようにしている。

引数の詳細はsimulation.jlの各methodの定義部分に記載

確認する点は以下

  • Candidateのdemographic parameter に大きい値を入れてみる。値を大きくしたcandidateのvote shareが高まるかを確認
  • Costのparameter を大きくすることでturn outがどれだけ上がるかを確認
  • Tijを変化させた結果を、州ごとにmunicipalityを二人組ずつ散布図で確認。とりあえず4人の候補者がいる特定の州について(Tijが6つのパラメータ)、パラメータの値を大きくして見る。その際、Vstrの値を事前に確認して、変化するべき方向を見極めておく。。（パラメータをランダムにしているのでいい感じに変化が見えるplotができない。とりあえず一つのシチュエーションについてのみ検証しました。）

設定できるパラメータは以下のとおり

FAlph = Array(Float64, 2, 1)
# setting parameters
param[2] = -1
C0 = 0
# Raceの変更に伴い、Cxも4つの要素にする必要がある。
q = 4
Cx = param[1:q]
Cz = -abs(param[q+1:q+3])
FAlph[1,1] = abs(param[q+4])
FAlph[2,1] = abs(param[q+5])
param[q+4:q+5] = FAlph[1:2,1]
Sig_xsi  = max(0.5, abs(param[q+6]))
param[q+6] = Sig_xsi
DeltaO  = 0.6891
DeltaMO = 0.5366
# Raceをいじった関係でこのvkを4*4 = 16この要素にしなくちゃいけない
vk = param[12:27]
composite = param[75:149]
Tij = abs(param[150:260])

# new parameters
# rho_eta = abs(param[261])
rho_eta = 1
rho_chi = param[262:265]
mu_chi = param[266:269]
chi = param[270:273]




In [2]:



    


# パラメータセットとインスタンスの作成
m = simulation(rand(273))

# simulationを実行
v = simulate(m)



    


















    






full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'
full precision may not have been achieved in 'qbeta'










    
Out[2]:








3020×4 Array{Float64,2}:
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.336575   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.327785   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.358893   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.321791   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.351386   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.309306   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.316231   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.355108   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.348746   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.334231   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.353314   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.436407   
 0.0          0.0       0.0         0.543397   
 ⋮                                             
 0.00104257   0.779316  0.00905213  0.000107107
 0.000896566  0.77684   0.0136474   0.00012052 
 0.00196757   0.784681  0.0103918   9.22822e-5 
 0.00120721   0.789348  0.0093919   0.000107565
 0.000471379  0.748574  0.0101882   7.44477e-5 
 0.000464188  0.803197  0.00601342  7.32094e-5 
 0.00126297   0.789139  0.010552    8.56896e-5 
 0.0013763    0.754742  0.0116335   0.000176737
 0.00285867   0.779451  0.0146051   0.000171378
 0.00101044   0.780279  0.0143377   0.000112238
 0.000815266  0.7894    0.00798905  0.000213809
 0.00138135   0.789023  0.00671324  7.92553e-5

各methodを使う





In [5]:



    


# candcandの使用

# 第1引数がstate_number
# 第2引数がsimulated votehare
# どちらの引数も省略することが可能。
# 第1引数を省略するとすべての州についてのプロットを別々のファイルにして出力する。
# 第2引数を省略すると上のsimulate関数を実行してvote shareを糧に出してくれる。
candcand(m, 4, v)



    


















    






WARNING: the no-op `transpose` fallback is deprecated, and no more specific `transpose` method for Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct} exists. Consider `permutedims(x, [2, 1])` or writing a specific `transpose(x::Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct})` method if appropriate.
 in depwarn(::String, ::Symbol) at ./deprecated.jl:64
 in transpose(::Ptr{









    

















    






PyCall.PyObject_struct}) at ./deprecated.jl:770
 in transpose_f!(::Base.#transpose, ::Array{Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct},2}, ::Array{Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct},2}) at ./arraymath.jl:369
 in transpose(::Array{Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct},2}) at ./arraymath.jl:407
 in copy(::PyCall.PyArray{Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct},2}) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/numpy.jl:337
 in convert(::Type{Array{Ptr{PyCall.PyObject_struct},N}}, ::PyCall.PyObject) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/numpy.jl:453
 in convert(::Type{Array{PyCall.PyObject,N}}, ::PyCall.PyObject) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/numpy.jl:484
 in (::PyCall.##8#9{DataType,PyCall.PyObject})(::Int64) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/conversions.jl:180
 in ntuple(::PyCall.##8#9{DataType,PyCall.PyObject}, ::Int64) at ./tuple.jl:65
 in convert(::Type{Tuple{PyPlot.Figure,Array{PyCall.PyObject,N}}}, ::PyCall.PyObject) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/conversions.jl:180
 in convert(::Type{PyCall.PyAny}, ::PyCall.PyObject) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/conversions.jl:806
 in #pycall#66(::Array{Any,1}, ::Function, ::PyCall.PyObject, ::Type{PyCall.PyAny}, ::Int64, ::Vararg{Int64,N}) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyCall/src/PyCall.jl:568
 in (::PyCall.#kw##pycall)(::Array{Any,1}, ::PyCall.#pycall, ::PyCall.PyObject, ::Type{PyCall.PyAny}, ::Int64, ::Vararg{Int64,N}) at ./<missing>:0
 in #subplots#115(::Array{Any,1}, ::Function, ::Int64, ::Vararg{Int64,N}) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/PyPlot/src/PyPlot.jl:399
 in (::PyPlot.#kw##subplots)(::Array{Any,1}, ::PyPlot.#subplots, ::Int64, ::Vararg{Int64,N}) at ./<missing>:0
 in candcand(::simulation, ::Int64, ::Array{Float64,2}) at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:368
 in include_string(::String, ::String) at ./loading.jl:441
 in execute_request(::ZMQ.Socket, ::IJulia.Msg) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/IJulia/src/execute_request.jl:169
 in eventloop(::ZMQ.Socket) at /Users/susu/.julia/v0.5/IJulia/src/eventloop.jl:8
 in (::IJulia.##9#15)() at ./task.jl:360
while loading In[5], in expression starting on line 8

















In [6]:



    


# state_voteの使用

# vはsimulated vote share
# 省略可能。
# 省略したら勝手にsimulateしてvote shareを入れてくれる。
state_vote(m, v)



    


















    
























In [7]:



    


# demoの使用

# demographicの種類は省略不可能
# 第3引数はstate number。上と同様に省略可能
# 第4引数はsimulated vote share。上と同様に省略可能
demo(m, "race", 3, v)



    


















    
























In [9]:



    


# rate_histoの使用
rate_histo(m, v)



    


















    
Out[9]:









  
    x1
  
  
    -0.030
    -0.025
    -0.020
    -0.015
    -0.010
    -0.005
    0.000
    0.005
    0.010
    0.015
    0.020
    0.025
    0.030
    0.035
    0.040
    -0.025
    -0.024
    -0.023
    -0.022
    -0.021
    -0.020
    -0.019
    -0.018
    -0.017
    -0.016
    -0.015
    -0.014
    -0.013
    -0.012
    -0.011
    -0.010
    -0.009
    -0.008
    -0.007
    -0.006
    -0.005
    -0.004
    -0.003
    -0.002
    -0.001
    0.000
    0.001
    0.002
    0.003
    0.004
    0.005
    0.006
    0.007
    0.008
    0.009
    0.010
    0.011
    0.012
    0.013
    0.014
    0.015
    0.016
    0.017
    0.018
    0.019
    0.020
    0.021
    0.022
    0.023
    0.024
    0.025
    0.026
    0.027
    0.028
    0.029
    0.030
    0.031
    0.032
    0.033
    0.034
    0.035
    0.036
    -0.04
    -0.02
    0.00
    0.02
    0.04
    -0.026
    -0.024
    -0.022
    -0.020
    -0.018
    -0.016
    -0.014
    -0.012
    -0.010
    -0.008
    -0.006
    -0.004
    -0.002
    0.000
    0.002
    0.004
    0.006
    0.008
    0.010
    0.012
    0.014
    0.016
    0.018
    0.020
    0.022
    0.024
    0.026
    0.028
    0.030
    0.032
    0.034
    0.036
  

  
    
      
    
    
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
    
    
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
    
    
      
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
        
      
    
    
      
        
        
      
      
        
      
      
        
      
      
        
        
      
    
  

  
    -2500
    -2000
    -1500
    -1000
    -500
    0
    500
    1000
    1500
    2000
    2500
    3000
    3500
    4000
    4500
    -2000
    -1900
    -1800
    -1700
    -1600
    -1500
    -1400
    -1300
    -1200
    -1100
    -1000
    -900
    -800
    -700
    -600
    -500
    -400
    -300
    -200
    -100
    0
    100
    200
    300
    400
    500
    600
    700
    800
    900
    1000
    1100
    1200
    1300
    1400
    1500
    1600
    1700
    1800
    1900
    2000
    2100
    2200
    2300
    2400
    2500
    2600
    2700
    2800
    2900
    3000
    3100
    3200
    3300
    3400
    3500
    3600
    3700
    3800
    3900
    4000
    -2000
    0
    2000
    4000
    -2000
    -1800
    -1600
    -1400
    -1200
    -1000
    -800
    -600
    -400
    -200
    0
    200
    400
    600
    800
    1000
    1200
    1400
    1600
    1800
    2000
    2200
    2400
    2600
    2800
    3000
    3200
    3400
    3600
    3800
    4000

変化の確認

demographic parameterの変化





In [11]:



    


# 乱数でパラメータを作る
srand(12345)
para1 = rand(273)
srand(12345)
para2 = rand(273);

# vk = param[12:27]がdemographic
# 一番左の候補者についてパラメータをいじる(clark)
para1[12:15]　= para1[12:15]*5

# データシミュレーション
s1 = simulation(para1)
v1 = simulate(s1)
s2 = simulation(para2)
v2 = simulate(s2);



    











In [12]:



    


# clarkに投票したくなるはず
state_vote(s1, v1)



    


















    
























In [13]:



    


# 基準
state_vote(s2, v2)

選挙に行くコストを下げる





In [14]:



    


# まずはCxをいじる
srand(12345)
para1 = rand(273)
srand(12345)
para2 = rand(273)

q = 4
para1[1:q] = para1[1:q]*5
para1[2] = -1
para2[2] = -1

s3 = simulation(para1)
v3 = simulate(s3)
s4 = simulation(para2)
v4 = simulate(s4);



    


















    






WARNING: Method definition betainvcdf(Number, Number, Array) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:10 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:10.
WARNING: Method definition max(Real, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:12 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:12.
WARNING: Method definition normpdf(Array{Float64, 2}) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:14 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:14.
WARNING: Method definition (::Type{Main.simulation})(Array{Float64, 1}) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:21 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:21.
WARNING: Method definition (::Type{Main.simulation})(Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:21 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:21.
WARNING: Method definition simulate(Main.simulation) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:29 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:29.
WARNING: Method definition candcand(Main.simulation) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:317 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:317.
WARNING: Method definition candcand(Main.simulation, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:317 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:317.
WARNING: Method definition candcand(Main.simulation, Any, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:317 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:317.
WARNING: Method definition state_vote(Main.simulation) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:388 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:388.
WARNING: Method definition state_vote(Main.simulation, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:388 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:388.
WARNING: Method definition demo(Main.simulation, String) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:419 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:419.
WARNING: Method definition demo(Main.simulation, String, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:419 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:419.
WARNING: Method definition demo(Main.simulation, String, Any, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:419 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:419.
WARNING: Method definition rate_histo(Main.simulation) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:476 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:476.
WARNING: Method definition rate_histo(Main.simulation, Any) in module Main at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:476 overwritten at /Users/susu/Desktop/Hong Kong/RA/voting_git/simulation.jl:476.

















In [15]:



    


# いかなくなるはず
state_vote(s3, v3)



    


















    
























In [16]:



    


# 基準
# 下に対しても基準
state_vote(s4, v4)



    


















    
























In [20]:



    


# Czをいじる

# Cz = -abs(param[q+1:q+3])

srand(12345)
para1 = rand(273)

q = 4
para1[q+1:q+3] = para1[q+1:q+3]*5
para1[2] = -1

s5 = simulation(para1)
v5 = simulate(s5);



    











In [21]:



    


# 下がるはず
# ほとんど影響しない?
state_vote(s5, v5)



    


















    
























In [22]:



    


v5 == v4



    


















    
Out[22]:








false

Tijの変化を見る





In [12]:



    


# 候補者が4人いる州から一つ検証対象を抜き出す

# 以下で0になっている州が4人出ている州
for S in 1:size(Cand,1)
    println(S);
    println(sum(v[Cand[S, 14]:Cand[S, 15], :].==0.0));
end



    


















    






1
201
2
132
3
18
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
8
225
9
0
10
108
11
0
12
0
13
0
14
0
15
9
16
0
17
0
18
0
19
0
20
0
21
0
22
0
23
0
24
0
25
0
26
56
27
17
28
93
29
0
30
154
31
67
32
0
33
0
34
12
35
0

















In [35]:



    


# 良さげな州を選ぶ
# パラメータセット
srand(12345)
para1 = rand(273)
m = simulation(para1)
v = simulate(m)
candcand(m, 0, v)

S = 19が比較的良さそう

candidate1 : "clark"

candidate2 : "dean"

candidate3 : "edwards"

candidate4 : "kerry"





In [40]:



    


# 基準
A = 19
abs(para1[150:260])[Cand[A, 11]:Cand[A, 12],1]
candcand(m, A, v)



    


















    
























In [43]:



    


# Tijをいじる
srand(12345)
para2 = rand(273)

# candidate1 vs candidate2を大きくする
# 二重にindexを参照すると代入できないから気をつけてね
para2[149+Cand[A, 11], 1] = 0.9999
abs(para2[150:260])[Cand[A, 11]:Cand[A, 12],1]



    


















    
Out[43]:








6-element Array{Float64,1}:
 0.9999   
 0.651084 
 0.289488 
 0.39906  
 0.269784 
 0.0703054

















In [44]:



    


# パラメータをいじったのちの結果
# plotじゃあわかりにくい
m2 = simulation(para2)
v2 = simulate(m2)
candcand(m2, A, v2)



    


















    
























In [51]:



    


# 各候補のmunicipality別の変化
# 要するにdeanのみ上昇した。
v2[Cand[A, 14]:Cand[A, 15], :] - v[Cand[A, 14]:Cand[A, 15], :]



    


















    
Out[51]:








243×4 Array{Float64,2}:
 -0.000134198  0.0950827  -0.00338049  -0.000221961
 -0.000146521  0.0952574  -0.00332392  -0.000227641
 -0.000176531  0.112209   -0.00380217  -0.000297549
 -0.000140317  0.0990471  -0.00318899  -0.000246383
 -0.000107952  0.0749609  -0.00276514  -0.000255738
 -0.000170518  0.108608   -0.0044259   -0.000323404
 -0.000172431  0.0883763  -0.00372834  -0.000253196
 -0.000178756  0.0805853  -0.00273067  -0.000250934
 -0.000165937  0.104266   -0.00325867  -0.000263087
 -0.000125365  0.0908383  -0.0033949   -0.000213333
 -0.00015662   0.104945   -0.00406694  -0.000294793
 -0.000114982  0.0977437  -0.00374699  -0.000233781
 -0.000156784  0.107564   -0.00367191  -0.000285934
  ⋮                                                
 -0.000119047  0.0998098  -0.00371606  -0.000209607
 -0.000128549  0.0863487  -0.0032481   -0.000232915
 -0.00020895   0.123641   -0.00477473  -0.000371279
 -0.000172565  0.105883   -0.00437529  -0.000295562
 -0.000178129  0.112872   -0.00472957  -0.000293445
 -0.0001485    0.0837846  -0.00378698  -0.000223006
 -0.000171368  0.103927   -0.00414322  -0.000307893
 -0.000172806  0.104998   -0.00380146  -0.000265755
 -0.000153516  0.10912    -0.00369863  -0.000259007
 -0.00015132   0.103801   -0.00397326  -0.000284123
 -0.000185745  0.10408    -0.00441725  -0.000279086
 -0.00014146   0.104051   -0.00419912  -0.000219308

「S = 19において、T_1_2を大きくすると、candidate2のみ得票率が上昇する」は正しい動きか？

→vstrを見る





In [52]:



    


println(Cand[A, 9])
println(Cand[A, 10])



    


















    






1
1

なので

VSTR_s = ones(48, 4)

Composite = ones(size(X,1),1)*COMPOSITE'

VSTR_s[:,1] = T_s[1,1]*(VStr_s[:,1]-VStr_s[:,2])+T_s[2,1]*(VStr_s[:,1]-VStr_s[:,3])
+T_s[3,1]*(VStr_s[:,1]-VStr_s[:,4])+Composite[:,1]

VSTR_s[:,2] = T_s[1,1]*(VStr_s[:,2]-VStr_s[:,1])+T_s[4,1]*(VStr_s[:,2]-VStr_s[:,3])
+T_s[5,1]*(VStr_s[:,2]-VStr_s[:,4])+Composite[:,2]

VSTR_s[:,3] = T_s[2,1]*(VStr_s[:,3]-VStr_s[:,1])+T_s[4,1]*(VStr_s[:,3]-VStr_s[:,2])
+T_s[6,1]*(VStr_s[:,3]-VStr_s[:,4])+Composite[:,3]

VSTR_s[:,4] = T_s[3,1]*(VStr_s[:,4]-VStr_s[:,1])+T_s[5,1]*(VStr_s[:,4]-VStr_s[:,2])
+T_s[6,1]*(VStr_s[:,4]-VStr_s[:,3])+Composite[:,4]

今、T_s[1,1] = 0.9999と置いたので、VStr_s[:,1]-VStr_s[:,2]の向きを見ればいい。

vk = param[12:27]

VStr = X[:, 2:end]*[vk[1:4] vk[5:8] vk[9:12] vk[13:16]]

VStr_s = VStr

ただし、Xは州ごとのdemographic(48 ,5)





In [56]:



    


vk = para1[12:27]
VStr = X[:, 2:end]*[vk[1:4] vk[5:8] vk[9:12] vk[13:16]]
VStr_s = VStr
VStr_s[:,1]-VStr_s[:,2]



    


















    
Out[56]:








48-element Array{Float64,1}:
 -4.33591
 -4.53393
 -4.79161
 -4.96991
 -4.23196
 -4.42997
 -4.68765
 -4.86595
 -4.128  
 -4.32601
 -4.58369
 -4.762  
 -3.97206
  ⋮      
 -3.86107
 -4.05908
 -4.31676
 -4.49507
 -3.75711
 -3.95513
 -4.21281
 -4.39111
 -3.60118
 -3.79919
 -4.05687
 -4.23517

以上より、VStr_s[:,1]-VStr_s[:,2] < 0なので、T_s[1,1]を大きくした時に、VSTR_s[:,2]が大きくなる。

これはdeanの得票率が上昇することを意味するので、意図した動きになっている。





In [ ]:

Content source: keiikegami/voting

Similar notebooks:

notebook.community | gallery | about