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Flexible hours: employment policies in the U.S. and in Germany

João B. Sousa

19 October 2017

Preliminary data analysis





In [28]:



    


using RDatasets, DataFrames
using PyPlot

GDP_US = readtable("GDPC1.csv"); 
Consumption_US = readtable("PCECC96.csv");
EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US = readtable("PRS85006013.csv");
AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US = readtable("PRS85006023.csv");
EmploymentManufacturing_US = readtable("PRS30006013.csv");
AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US = readtable("PRS30006023.csv");
EmploymentBusinessServices_US = readtable("PRS84006013.csv");
AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US = readtable("PRS84006023.csv");

GDP_DE = readtable("CLVMNACSCAB1GQDE.csv")
Consumption_DE = readtable("DEUPFCEQDSNAQ.csv")
EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE = readtable("TotalPrivateDE.csv");
EmploymentManufacturing_DE = readtable("ManufacturingDE.csv"); # last column has total hours worker per quarter
EmploymentBusinessServices_DE = readtable("BusinessServicesDE.csv") # last column has total hours worker per quarter


function hp_filter(y::Vector{Float64}, lambda::Float64)
    n = length(y)
    @assert n >= 4

    diag2 = lambda*ones(n-2)
    diag1 = [ -2lambda; -4lambda*ones(n-3); -2lambda ]
    diag0 = [ 1+lambda; 1+5lambda; (1+6lambda)*ones(n-4); 1+5lambda; 1+lambda ]

    D = spdiagm((diag2, diag1, diag0, diag1, diag2), (-2,-1,0,1,2))

    return D\y
end


GDP_US[:TREND]=hp_filter(Array(GDP_US[:,:GDPC1]),1600.0)
GDP_US[:CYCLE]=GDP_US[:GDPC1]-GDP_US[:TREND]
GDP_DE[:TREND]=hp_filter(Array(GDP_DE[:,2]),1600.0)
GDP_DE[:CYCLE]=GDP_DE[:,2]-GDP_DE[:TREND]
Consumption_US[:TREND]=hp_filter(Array(Consumption_US[:,2]),1600.0)
Consumption_US[:CYCLE]=Consumption_US[:,2]-Consumption_US[:TREND]
Consumption_DE[:TREND]=hp_filter(Array(Consumption_DE[:,2]),1600.0)
Consumption_DE[:CYCLE]=Consumption_DE[:,2]-Consumption_DE[:TREND]



EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:,:TREND]=hp_filter(convert(Array{Float64,1},Array(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:,:EMP])),1600.0)
EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:,:CYCLE]=EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:,2]-EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:,:TREND]
EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:,:TREND]=hp_filter(convert(Array{Float64,1},Array(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:,2])),1600.0)
EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:,:CYCLE]=EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:,2]-EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:,:TREND]

EmploymentManufacturing_US[:,:TREND]=hp_filter(Array(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:,2]),1600.0)
EmploymentManufacturing_US[:,:CYCLE]=EmploymentManufacturing_US[:,2]-EmploymentManufacturing_US[:,:TREND]
EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:,:TREND]=hp_filter(convert(Array{Float64,1},Array(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:,2])),1600.0)
EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:,:CYCLE]=EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:,2]-EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:,:TREND]
EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:,:TREND]=hp_filter(Array(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:,2]),1600.0)
EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:,:CYCLE]=EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:,2]-EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:,:TREND];
EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:,:TREND]=hp_filter(convert(Array{Float64,1},Array(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:,2])),1600.0)
EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:,:CYCLE]=EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:,2]-EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:,:TREND];



    











In [29]:



    


US_peaks=["1990-07-01","2001-04-01","2007-10-01"];
US_troughs=["1991-01-01","2001-10-01","2010-04-01"];

DE_peaks=["1991-01-01","2001-01-01","2008-01-01"];
DE_troughs=["1993-07-01","2005-04-01","2010-10-01"];



    











In [30]:



    


figure("gdp_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    #y1=GDP_US[(GDP_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(GDP_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y1=100*GDP_US[(GDP_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(GDP_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    GDP_US[(GDP_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(GDP_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND];
    #y1=y1./y1[1]

    x = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    #ax=subplot(121)
    
    plot(x, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Output") 
    ylabel("Percentage deviation from trend")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")
    
end


savefig("gdp_US.png")
close("gdp_US")



    












In [31]:



    


figure("gdp_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=100*GDP_DE[(GDP_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(GDP_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    GDP_DE[(GDP_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(GDP_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND];

    x = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    #ax=subplot(121)
    
    plot(x, y1, linewidth=2, color="red", alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Output") 
    ylabel("Percentage deviation from trend")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")
    
end


savefig("gdp_DE.png")
close("gdp_DE")



    











In [32]:



    


figure("gdp_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=100*GDP_US[(GDP_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(GDP_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    GDP_US[(GDP_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(GDP_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND];

    y2=100*GDP_DE[(GDP_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(GDP_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    GDP_DE[(GDP_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(GDP_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND];

    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))
    
    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, color="red", alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])

    grid("on") 
    title("Output") 
    ylabel("Percentage deviation from trend")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")
    
end


savefig("gdp_US_DE.png")
close("gdp_US_DE")



    












In [33]:



    


figure("consumption_US",figsize=(7,5))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*Consumption_US[(Consumption_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    Consumption_US[(Consumption_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    #y=100*y./y[1]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Consumption") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("consumption_US.png")
close("consumption_US")



    












In [34]:



    


figure("consumption_DE",figsize=(7,5))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*Consumption_DE[(Consumption_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    Consumption_DE[(Consumption_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, color="red", alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Consumption") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("consumption_DE.png")
close("consumption_DE")



    











In [35]:



    


figure("consumption_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=100*Consumption_US[(Consumption_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    Consumption_US[(Consumption_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    y2=100*Consumption_DE[(Consumption_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    Consumption_DE[(Consumption_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(Consumption_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]

    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))

    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, color="red", alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])

    grid("on") 
    title("Consumption") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("consumption_US_DE.png")
close("consumption_US_DE")



    












In [36]:



    


figure("employment_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
#    y=EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
#    y=100*y./y[1]

    y=100*EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_US.png")
close("employment_US")



    












In [37]:



    


figure("employment_DE",figsize=(8,6))
for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end
close("employment_DE")



    











In [38]:



    


figure("employment_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=100*EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))

    y2=100*EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))

    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, color="red", alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])

    grid("on") 
    title("Employment") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_US_DE.png")
close("employment_US_DE")



    












In [39]:



    


figure("employment_manufacturing_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*EmploymentManufacturing_US[(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentManufacturing_US[(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))

    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment in Manufacturing") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_manufacturing_US.png")
close("employment_manufacturing_US")



    












In [40]:



    


figure("employment_manufacturing_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*EmploymentManufacturing_DE[(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentManufacturing_DE[(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))

    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment in Manufacturing") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_manufacturing_DE.png")
close("employment_manufacturing_DE")



    











In [41]:



    


figure("employment_manufacturing_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=100*EmploymentManufacturing_US[(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentManufacturing_US[(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    y2=100*EmploymentManufacturing_DE[(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentManufacturing_DE[(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))

    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, color="red", label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])

    grid("on") 
    title("Employment in Manufacturing") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_manufacturing_US_DE.png")
close("employment_manufacturing_US_DE")



    












In [42]:



    


figure("employment_services_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*EmploymentBusinessServices_US[(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentBusinessServices_US[(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment in Services") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_services_US.png")
close("employment_services_US")



    












In [43]:



    


figure("employment_services_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=100*EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment in Services") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_services_DE.png")
close("employment_services_DE")



    











In [44]:



    


figure("employment_services_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=100*EmploymentBusinessServices_US[(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentBusinessServices_US[(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    y2=100*EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:CYCLE]./
    EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:TREND]
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))
    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, color="red", label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    grid("on") 
    title("Employment in Services") 
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("employment_services_US_DE.png")
close("employment_services_US_DE")



    












In [45]:



    


figure("average_hours_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US[(AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y=100*y./y[1]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker") 
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("average_hours_US.png")
close("average_hours_US")



    












In [46]:



    


figure("average_hours_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:H]
    y=100*y./y[1]

    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker") 
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="lower right")

end

savefig("average_hours_DE.png")
close("average_hours_DE")



    











In [47]:



    


figure("average_hours_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US[(AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(AverageWeeklyHoursNonfarmBusiness_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y1=100*y1./y1[1]
    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    y2=EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentNonfarmBusiness_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:H]
    y2=100*y2./y2[1]
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker") 
    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, color="red", label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("average_hours_US_DE.png")
close("average_hours_US_DE")



    












In [48]:



    


figure("average_hours_manufacturing_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US[(AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y=100*y./y[1]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker in Manufacturing") 
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("average_hours_manufacturing_US.png")
close("average_hours_manufacturing_US")



    












In [49]:



    


figure("hours_manufacturing_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=EmploymentManufacturing_DE[(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:HW]
    y=100*y./y[1]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker in Manufacturing") 
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Indeex, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("hours_manufacturing_DE.png")
close("hours_manufacturing_DE")



    











In [50]:



    


figure("average_hours_manufacturing_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US[(AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(AverageWeeklyHoursManufacturing_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y1=100*y1./y1[1]
    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    y2=EmploymentManufacturing_DE[(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentManufacturing_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:HW]
    y2=100*y2./y2[1]
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker in Manufacturing") 
    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, color="red", alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("average_hours_manufacturing_US_DE.png")
close("average_hours_manufacturing_US_DE")



    












In [51]:



    


figure("average_hours_services_US",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US[(AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y=100*y./y[1]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker in Services") 
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("average_hours_services_US.png")
close("average_hours_services_US")



    












In [52]:



    


figure("hours_services_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y=EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:HW]
    y=100*y./y[1]
    x = linspace(0,length(y)-1,length(y))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker in Services") 
    plot(x, y, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Indeex, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("hours_services_DE.png")
close("hours_services_DE")



    











In [53]:



    


figure("average_hours_services_US_DE",figsize=(8,6))

for i in 3:3
    
    y1=AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US[(AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US[:DATE].>=US_peaks[i]).&(AverageWeeklyHoursBusinessServices_US[:DATE].<=US_troughs[i]),2]
    y1=100*y1./y1[1]
    x1 = linspace(0,length(y1)-1,length(y1))
    y2=EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].>=DE_peaks[i]).&(EmploymentBusinessServices_DE[:DATE].<=DE_troughs[i]),:HW]
    y2=100*y2./y2[1]
    x2 = linspace(0,length(y2)-1,length(y2))
    grid("on") 
    title("Average hours per worker in Services") 
    plot(x1, y1, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, label="United States: "*US_peaks[i]*" to "*US_troughs[i])
    plot(x2, y2, linewidth=2, alpha=0.6, color="red", label="Germany: "*DE_peaks[i]*" to "*DE_troughs[i])
    ylabel("Index, 100=Q1")
    xlabel("Quarters since Recession")
    legend(loc="upper right")

end

savefig("average_hours_services_US_DE.png")
close("average_hours_services_US_DE")

United States:

  • Total hours reduction: 30% via hours/worker, 70% via # workers (Elsby et al [2010])

Germany:

  • Total hours reduction: 78% via hours/worker, 22% via # workers (Burda and Hunt [2011])




In [54]:



    


UB_US=readtable("W825RC1Q027SBEA.csv");
figure("UB_expenditures_US",figsize=(10,8))
x=linspace(1,length(UB_US[:,2]),length(UB_US[:,2]))

plot(UB_US[:,2], linewidth=2, alpha=0.6)
xticks(1:8:length(x),UB_US[1:8:length(x),1], rotation=60)
title("Unemployment Insurance expenditures, United States")
ylabel("USD Billions")

savefig("UB_expenditures_US.png")
close("UB_expenditures_US")

Two unemployment compensation policies

Unemployment benefit:

  • temporary compensation due to lay off (working zero hours).

Short time compensation:

  • temporary compensation due to reduction in usual working hours.

Labour market policy during the Great Recession

United States:

  • Emergency Unemployment Compensations 2008: progressively extended duration of UI from 13 to up to 66 weeks.
  • EUC 2008 program expired in December 2013.

Labour market policy during the Great Recession

Germany:

  • Short-time compensation (extended from 6 to 24 months during the recession)

Germany: short-time work ("Kurzarbeit")

  • The government pays part of the wage of an employee when his employer needs to reduce working times.
  • For each hour of forgone work time, the employer pays 60-67 percent to the employee and is then fully reimburse by the government.
  • In addition, social security contributions are paid at 50 percent during the first 6 months, at are waived after 6 months.
  • Prerequisite to apply for short-time work allowance: lack of work, due to a recession or firm specific factors (as long as temporary).

Source: Brenke, Rinne and Zimmermann (2011)





In [ ]:

Content source: jbrogueira/jbrogueira.github.io

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