Bayesian Plotting

3ML's Bayesian capabilites include the ability to examine marginal distributions and compare model parameters between fits.

This tutorial demonstrates some of these capabilities.

Simple corner plots require the corner package.

ChainConsumer is required for more advanced plots. https://github.com/Samreay/ChainConsumer


In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
%matplotlib notebook

from threeML import *


Configuration read from /Users/jburgess/.threeML/threeML_config.yml

Data setup and sampling

We will use Fermi GBM data for this example. The following code sets up the data and Bayesian fits.

We use emcee to sample, but any of the included samplers will work.


In [6]:
data_dir = os.path.join('gbm','bn080916009')
trigger_number = 'bn080916009'
src_selection = '0-71'
# Download the data

data_dir_gbm = os.path.join('gbm',trigger_number)
gbm_data = download_GBM_trigger_data(trigger_number,detectors=['n3','b0'],destination_directory=data_dir_gbm,compress_tte=True)




nai3 = FermiGBMTTELike('NAI3',
                         os.path.join(data_dir, "glg_tte_n3_bn080916009_v01.fit.gz"),
                         "-10-0, 100-200",
                         src_selection,
                         rsp_file=os.path.join(data_dir, "glg_cspec_n3_bn080916009_v00.rsp2"))

bgo0 = FermiGBMTTELike('BGO0',
                         os.path.join(data_dir, "glg_tte_b0_bn080916009_v01.fit.gz"),
                         "-10-0,100-200",
                         src_selection,
                         rsp_file=os.path.join(data_dir, "glg_cspec_b0_bn080916009_v00.rsp2"))


nai3.set_active_measurements("10.0-30.0", "40.0-900.0")

bgo0.set_active_measurements("250-43000")



triggerName = 'bn080916009'
ra = 121.8
dec = -61.3


data_list = DataList(nai3,bgo0 )

band = Band()


GRB = PointSource( triggerName, ra, dec, spectral_shape=band )

model = Model( GRB )


band.K.prior = Log_uniform_prior(lower_bound=1e-4, upper_bound=3)
band.xp.prior = Log_uniform_prior(lower_bound=10, upper_bound=1e5)

# or use the set_uninformative_prior method, which will use as lower_bound
# and upper_bound the current boundaries for the parameter. Such boundaries
# must exists and be finite

band.alpha.set_uninformative_prior(Uniform_prior)
band.beta.set_uninformative_prior(Uniform_prior)

bayes = BayesianAnalysis(model, data_list)

samples = bayes.sample(n_walkers=50,burn_in=500, n_samples=1000)


Skipping: glg_cspec_n3_bn080916009_v00.rsp2 exists in /Users/jburgess/coding/3ML/examples/gbm/bn080916009
Skipping: glg_cspec_b0_bn080916009_v00.rsp2 exists in /Users/jburgess/coding/3ML/examples/gbm/bn080916009
Skipping: glg_tte_n3_bn080916009_v01.fit.gz exists in /Users/jburgess/coding/3ML/examples/gbm/bn080916009
Skipping: glg_tte_b0_bn080916009_v01.fit.gz exists in /Users/jburgess/coding/3ML/examples/gbm/bn080916009
WARNING UserWarning: No TLMIN keyword found. This DRM does not follow OGIP standards. Assuming TLMIN=1


WARNING VisibleDeprecationWarning: converting an array with ndim > 0 to an index will result in an error in the future

Auto-determined polynomial order: 1


Unbinned 1-order polynomial fit with the Nelder-Mead method


Auto-probed noise models:
- observation: poisson
- background: gaussian
Auto-determined polynomial order: 1


Unbinned 1-order polynomial fit with the Nelder-Mead method


Auto-probed noise models:
- observation: poisson
- background: gaussian
Range 10.0-30.0 translates to channels 6-21
Range 40.0-900.0 translates to channels 27-124
Now using 114 channels out of 128
Range 250-43000 translates to channels 1-126
Now using 126 channels out of 128
Running burn-in of 500 samples...

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Sampling...


Mean acceptance fraction: 0.54618

Simple corner plot

We can look at the marginal distributions for the parameters with corner.


In [7]:
_=bayes.corner_plot()


Advanced corner plot

Using chain consumer, we can have more options for our plots.

Here is the default plot


In [8]:
_=bayes.corner_plot_cc()


We can look at the cloud or sampled points. Additionally, we can change the sigma level of the contours. Colors must be provided as HTML codes to facilitate the contour levels.


In [11]:
_=bayes.corner_plot_cc(sigmas=[0,1,3,5],color_params='alpha',shade_alpha=.4)


It is also possible to change parameter names. A dictionary of {old:new} names can be provided.


In [13]:
renamed ={'xp':'$E_p$',
          'alpha':'$\\alpha$',
          'beta':'$\\beta$'}

_=bayes.corner_plot_cc(renamed_parameters=renamed,shade=False)


Comparing distributions

Perhaps we want to look at two fits that are related. Here we use the example of Band+ Blackbody and will examine how the band parameters change when we included the extra component.


In [14]:
bandpl = Band() + Powerlaw()


GRB2 = PointSource( triggerName, ra, dec, spectral_shape=bandpl )

model2 = Model( GRB2 )


bandpl.K_1.prior = Log_uniform_prior(lower_bound=1e-4, upper_bound=3)
bandpl.xp_1.prior = Log_uniform_prior(lower_bound=10, upper_bound=1e5)


bandpl.alpha_1.set_uninformative_prior(Uniform_prior)
bandpl.beta_1.set_uninformative_prior(Uniform_prior)

bandpl.K_2.prior = Log_uniform_prior(lower_bound=1e-4, upper_bound=3)
bandpl.index_2.set_uninformative_prior(Uniform_prior)

bayes2 = BayesianAnalysis(model2, data_list)

samples2 = bayes2.sample(n_walkers=50,burn_in=200, n_samples=1000)


Running burn-in of 200 samples...

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Sampling...


Mean acceptance fraction: 0.34482

We can examine the marginals of all parameters first


In [15]:
renamed ={'xp_1':'$E_p$',
          'alpha_1':'$\\alpha$',
          'beta_1':'$\\beta$'}

_ = bayes2.corner_plot_cc(renamed_parameters=renamed)


Comparing parameters

Now let's compare to the original Band fit. We will have to do some manipulation because composite models from astromodels append numbers to clearly identify components.

We need to rename parameters so that those we wish to compare have the same names:


In [19]:
renamed ={'xp_1':'xp',
          'alpha_1':'alpha',
          'beta_1':'beta',
          'K_1':'K'}

_ = bayes2.compare_posterior(bayes,renamed_parameters=renamed,color_params=['index 2','xp'])


WARNING:chainconsumer.chain:Parameter beta is not constrained
WARNING:chainconsumer.chain:Parameter K 2 is not constrained

We can see that there is a shift in some parameters of the Band function due to the additional components.

Perhaps we want to focus on a subset of the parameters to draw more attention to them. This is easily accomplished by passing the parameters we are interested in. NOTE: We must use the original parameter names so that they are picked up!


In [20]:
_=bayes2.compare_posterior(bayes,renamed_parameters=renamed,shade_alpha=.7,parameters=['xp','alpha','index 2'],colors=["#740595","#FCA816"])


WARNING:chainconsumer.chain:Parameter beta is not constrained
WARNING:chainconsumer.chain:Parameter K 2 is not constrained

In [21]:
mc = ModelComparison(bayes,bayes2)

In [22]:
mc.report()


Model -2 ln(like) AIC BIC DIC log10 (Z) N. Free Parameters dof
0 Band 0.0 -2.5 -9.5 -19.8 NaN 4 236
1 composite -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 NaN 6 234
Out[22]:
-2 ln(like) AIC BIC DIC Model N. Free Parameters dof log10 (Z)
0 4525.2 4533.2 4547.1 4530.9 Band 4 236 None
1 4523.6 4535.6 4556.5 4550.7 composite 6 234 None

In [ ]:
cleanup_downloaded_GBM_data(gbm_data)