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Think Stats: Probability and Statistics for Programmers

Allen B. Downey

Version 1.6.0

Copyright 2011 Allen B. Downey

Permission is granted to copy, distribute, and/or modify this document under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License, which is available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc/3.0/.

• Preface
  • Why I wrote this book
  • How I wrote this book
  • Contributor List
• Statistical thinking for programmers
  • Do first babies arrive late?
  • A statistical approach
  • The National Survey of Family Growth
  • Tables and records
  • Significance
  • Glossary
• Descriptive statistics
  • Means and averages
  • Variance
  • Distributions
  • Representing histograms
  • Plotting histograms
  • Representing PMFs
  • Plotting PMFs
  • Outliers
  • Other visualizations
  • Relative risk
  • Conditional probability
  • Reporting results
  • Glossary
• Cumulative distribution functions
  • The class size paradox
  • The limits of PMFs
  • Percentiles
  • Cumulative distribution functions
  • Representing CDFs
  • Back to the survey data
  • Conditional distributions
  • Random numbers
  • Summary statistics revisited
  • Glossary
• Continuous distributions
  • The exponential distribution
  • The Pareto distribution
  • The normal distribution
  • Normal probability plot
  • The lognormal distribution
  • Why model?
  • Generating random numbers
  • Glossary
• Probability
  • Rules of probability
  • Monty Hall
  • Poincaré
  • Another rule of probability
  • Binomial distribution
  • Streaks and hot spots
  • Bayes’s theorem
  • Glossary
• Operations on distributions
  • Skewness
  • Random Variables
  • PDFs
  • Convolution
  • Why normal?
  • Central limit theorem
  • The distribution framework
  • Glossary
• Hypothesis testing
  • Testing a difference in means
  • Choosing a threshold
  • Defining the effect
  • Interpreting the result
  • Cross-validation
  • Reporting Bayesian probabilities
  • Chi-square test
  • Efficient resampling
  • Power
  • Glossary
• Estimation
  • The estimation game
  • Guess the variance
  • Understanding errors
  • Exponential distributions
  • Confidence intervals
  • Bayesian estimation
  • Implementing Bayesian estimation
  • Censored data
  • The locomotive problem
  • Glossary
• Correlation
  • Standard scores
  • Covariance
  • Correlation
  • Making scatterplots in pyplot
  • Spearman’s rank correlation
  • Least squares fit
  • Goodness of fit
  • Correlation and Causation
  • Glossary
• Index