EXERCISE — HCIP calculation

Gross rock volume



In [1]:

    
thick = 80            # metres
area = 20000 * 30000  # metres

grv = thick * area
grv









    Out[1]:





48000000000



In [2]:

    
from IPython import display
display.Image("http://subsurfwiki.org/images/6/66/Geometric_correction_factor.png", width=600)









    Out[2]:



In [3]:

    
height = 100
ratio = thick / height

top = 'slab'

if top == 'round':
    g = -0.6 * ratio + 1
elif top == 'flat':
    g = -0.3 * ratio + 1
else:
    g = 1

g









    Out[3]:





1



In [4]:

    
grv *= g

HC pore volume



In [5]:

    
netg = 0.5   # fraction
por = 0.24   # fraction
s_o = 0.8    # fraction

hcpv = netg * por * s_o

Formation volume factor

Oil shrinks when we produce it, especially if it has high GOR. The FVF, or $B_O$, is the ratio of a reservoir barrel to a stock-tank barrel (25 deg C and 1 atm). Typically the FVF is between 1 (heavy oil) and 1.7 (high GOR).

For gas, $B_G$ is 0.3495ZT/P, where Z is the Z factor.



In [6]:

    
fvf = 1.1

Put it all together



In [7]:

    
hcip = grv * hcpv / fvf
hcip









    Out[7]:





4189090909.0909085



In [8]:

    
print("HCIP", hcip)









    



HCIP 4189090909.0909085

For more on conversion to bbl, BOE, etc.



In [9]:

    
print("HCIP is {:.0f} Mm³ or {:.0f} million bbl".format(hcip/1000000, 6.29*hcip/1000000))









    



HCIP is 4189 Mm³ or 26349 million bbl

If we're lucky we'll recover 50% of what's in place:



In [10]:

    
recoverable = 0.5 * hcip
print("Recoverable is {:.0f} Mm³ or {:.0f} million bbl".format(recoverable/1000000, 6.29*recoverable/1000000))









    



Recoverable is 2095 Mm³ or 13175 million bbl

Risk

Single prospect



In [11]:

    
p_src = 0.5
p_mig = 0.25
p_trap = 0.75
p_res = 0.5



In [12]:

    
p_disc = p_src * p_mig * p_trap * p_res



In [13]:

    
p_disc









    Out[13]:





0.046875



In [16]:

    
expect = p_disc * recoverable



In [17]:

    
print("Expectation is {:.0f} Mm³ or {:.0f} million bbl".format(expect/1000000, 6.29*expect/1000000))









    



Expectation is 98 Mm³ or 618 million bbl

Another prospect



In [18]:

    
p_a = p_disc
p_b = 0.10



In [19]:

    
p_both = p_a * p_b
p_both









    Out[19]:





0.004687500000000001



In [20]:

    
p_one = 1 - (1 - p_a) * (1 - p_b)
p_one









    Out[20]:





0.14218750000000002

Reward

We'd like to get the latest oil price. We can use Yahoo Finance.

What's the symbol? Crude futures symbols are funky, e.g.

CL — West Texas Intermediate or WTI, light sweet crude
BZ — Brent look-alike crude oil futures
MB — Gulf Coast Sour Crude
BB — Brent crude penultimate financial futures
NG — Henry Hub physical futures
HH — Henry Hub last day financial futures

The ticker symbols we're passing look like XXMYY.NYM, with components as follows:

XX — commodity symbol, as above: CL, BB, etc.
M — a month code, symbolizing January to December: [F,G,H,J,K,M,N,Q,U,V,X,Z]
YY — a two-digit year, like 13.
.NYM — the Nymex symbol.

First we build a query:



In [21]:

    
import requests

symbol = 'CLF17.NYM'
url = "http://download.finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv"
params = {'s': symbol, 'f': 'l1'}

r = requests.get(url, params=params)



In [22]:

    
try:
    price = float(r.text)
except ValueError as e:
    print("Error: ", e, r.text)
    
price









    Out[22]:





45.78



In [23]:

    
reward = 6.29 * expect * price



In [24]:

    
reward









    Out[24]:





28272063272.72727



In [25]:

    
print("We should make ${:.2f} billion.".format(reward/10e9))









    



We should make $2.83 billion.



In [ ]: