# Overfitting demo

## Create a dataset based on a true sinusoidal relationship

Let's look at a synthetic dataset consisting of 30 points drawn from the sinusoid $y = \sin(4x)$:



In :

import graphlab
import math
import random
import numpy
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline



Create random values for x in interval [0,1)



In :

random.seed(98103)
n = 30
x = graphlab.SArray([random.random() for i in range(n)]).sort()




2016-04-25 03:15:49,473 [INFO] graphlab.cython.cy_server, 176: GraphLab Create v1.8.5 started. Logging: C:\Users\PHILIP~1\AppData\Local\Temp\graphlab_server_1461579348.log.0

This non-commercial license of GraphLab Create is assigned to chohyu01@cs.washington.edu and will expire on September 21, 2016. For commercial licensing options, visit https://dato.com/buy/.



Compute y



In :

y = x.apply(lambda x: math.sin(4*x))



Add random Gaussian noise to y



In :

random.seed(1)
e = graphlab.SArray([random.gauss(0,1.0/3.0) for i in range(n)])
y = y + e



### Put data into an SFrame to manipulate later



In :

data = graphlab.SFrame({'X1':x,'Y':y})
data




Out:

X1
Y

0.0395789449501
0.587050191026

0.0415680996791
0.648655851372

0.0724319480801
0.307803309485

0.150289044622
0.310748447417

0.161334144502
0.237409625496

0.191956312795
0.705017157224

0.232833917145
0.461716676992

0.259900980166
0.383260507851

0.380145814869
1.06517691429

0.432444723508
1.03184706949

[30 rows x 2 columns]Note: Only the head of the SFrame is printed.You can use print_rows(num_rows=m, num_columns=n) to print more rows and columns.



### Create a function to plot the data, since we'll do it many times



In :

def plot_data(data):
plt.plot(data['X1'],data['Y'],'k.')
plt.xlabel('x')
plt.ylabel('y')

plot_data(data)






## Define some useful polynomial regression functions

Define a function to create our features for a polynomial regression model of any degree:



In :

def polynomial_features(data, deg):
data_copy=data.copy()
for i in range(1,deg):
data_copy['X'+str(i+1)]=data_copy['X'+str(i)]*data_copy['X1']
return data_copy



Define a function to fit a polynomial linear regression model of degree "deg" to the data in "data":



In :

def polynomial_regression(data, deg):
model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(polynomial_features(data,deg),
target='Y', l2_penalty=0.,l1_penalty=0.,
validation_set=None,verbose=False)
return model



Define function to plot data and predictions made, since we are going to use it many times.



In :

def plot_poly_predictions(data, model):
plot_data(data)

# Get the degree of the polynomial
deg = len(model.coefficients['value'])-1

# Create 200 points in the x axis and compute the predicted value for each point
x_pred = graphlab.SFrame({'X1':[i/200.0 for i in range(200)]})
y_pred = model.predict(polynomial_features(x_pred,deg))

# plot predictions
plt.plot(x_pred['X1'], y_pred, 'g-', label='degree ' + str(deg) + ' fit')
plt.legend(loc='upper left')
plt.axis([0,1,-1.5,2])



Create a function that prints the polynomial coefficients in a pretty way :)



In :

def print_coefficients(model):
# Get the degree of the polynomial
deg = len(model.coefficients['value'])-1

# Get learned parameters as a list
w = list(model.coefficients['value'])

# Numpy has a nifty function to print out polynomials in a pretty way
# (We'll use it, but it needs the parameters in the reverse order)
print 'Learned polynomial for degree ' + str(deg) + ':'
w.reverse()
print numpy.poly1d(w)



## Fit a degree-2 polynomial

Fit our degree-2 polynomial to the data generated above:



In :

model = polynomial_regression(data, deg=2)



Inspect learned parameters



In :

print_coefficients(model)




Learned polynomial for degree 2:
2
-5.129 x + 4.147 x + 0.07471



Form and plot our predictions along a grid of x values:



In :

plot_poly_predictions(data,model)






## Fit a degree-4 polynomial



In :

model = polynomial_regression(data, deg=4)
print_coefficients(model)
plot_poly_predictions(data,model)




Learned polynomial for degree 4:
4         3         2
23.87 x - 53.82 x + 35.23 x - 6.828 x + 0.7755



## Fit a degree-16 polynomial



In :

model = polynomial_regression(data, deg=16)
print_coefficients(model)




Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16             15             14            13
-4.537e+05 x  + 1.129e+06 x  + 4.821e+05 x  - 3.81e+06 x
12             11             10             9
+ 3.536e+06 x  + 5.753e+04 x  - 1.796e+06 x  + 2.178e+06 x
8             7            6             5             4
- 3.662e+06 x + 4.442e+06 x - 3.13e+06 x + 1.317e+06 x - 3.356e+05 x
3        2
+ 5.06e+04 x - 4183 x + 160.8 x - 1.621



### Woah!!!! Those coefficients are crazy! On the order of 10^6.



In :

plot_poly_predictions(data,model)






# Ridge Regression

Ridge regression aims to avoid overfitting by adding a cost to the RSS term of standard least squares that depends on the 2-norm of the coefficients $\|w\|$. The result is penalizing fits with large coefficients. The strength of this penalty, and thus the fit vs. model complexity balance, is controled by a parameter lambda (here called "L2_penalty").

Define our function to solve the ridge objective for a polynomial regression model of any degree:



In :

def polynomial_ridge_regression(data, deg, l2_penalty):
model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(polynomial_features(data,deg),
target='Y', l2_penalty=l2_penalty,
validation_set=None,verbose=False)
return model



## Perform a ridge fit of a degree-16 polynomial using a very small penalty strength



In :

model = polynomial_ridge_regression(data, deg=16, l2_penalty=1e-25)
print_coefficients(model)




Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16             15             14            13
-4.537e+05 x  + 1.129e+06 x  + 4.821e+05 x  - 3.81e+06 x
12             11             10             9
+ 3.536e+06 x  + 5.753e+04 x  - 1.796e+06 x  + 2.178e+06 x
8             7            6             5             4
- 3.662e+06 x + 4.442e+06 x - 3.13e+06 x + 1.317e+06 x - 3.356e+05 x
3        2
+ 5.06e+04 x - 4183 x + 160.8 x - 1.621




In :

plot_poly_predictions(data,model)






## Perform a ridge fit of a degree-16 polynomial using a very large penalty strength



In :

model = polynomial_ridge_regression(data, deg=16, l2_penalty=100)
print_coefficients(model)




Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16          15          14          13          12         11
-0.301 x  - 0.2802 x  - 0.2604 x  - 0.2413 x  - 0.2229 x  - 0.205 x
10          9          8          7          6           5
- 0.1874 x  - 0.1699 x - 0.1524 x - 0.1344 x - 0.1156 x - 0.09534 x
4           3           2
- 0.07304 x - 0.04842 x - 0.02284 x - 0.002257 x + 0.6416




In :

plot_poly_predictions(data,model)






## Let's look at fits for a sequence of increasing lambda values



In :

for l2_penalty in [1e-25, 1e-10, 1e-6, 1e-3, 1e2]:
model = polynomial_ridge_regression(data, deg=16, l2_penalty=l2_penalty)
print 'lambda = %.2e' % l2_penalty
print_coefficients(model)
print '\n'
plt.figure()
plot_poly_predictions(data,model)
plt.title('Ridge, lambda = %.2e' % l2_penalty)




lambda = 1.00e-25
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16             15             14            13
-4.537e+05 x  + 1.129e+06 x  + 4.821e+05 x  - 3.81e+06 x
12             11             10             9
+ 3.536e+06 x  + 5.753e+04 x  - 1.796e+06 x  + 2.178e+06 x
8             7            6             5             4
- 3.662e+06 x + 4.442e+06 x - 3.13e+06 x + 1.317e+06 x - 3.356e+05 x
3        2
+ 5.06e+04 x - 4183 x + 160.8 x - 1.621

lambda = 1.00e-10
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16             15             14             13
4.975e+04 x  - 7.821e+04 x  - 2.265e+04 x  + 3.949e+04 x
12        11             10             9             8
+ 4.366e+04 x  + 3074 x  - 3.332e+04 x  - 2.786e+04 x + 1.032e+04 x
7        6             5             4        3         2
+ 2.962e+04 x - 1440 x - 2.597e+04 x + 1.839e+04 x - 5596 x + 866.1 x - 65.19 x + 2.159

lambda = 1.00e-06
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16         15         14        13         12         11
329.1 x  - 356.4 x  - 264.2 x  + 33.8 x  + 224.7 x  + 210.8 x
10         9       8         7         6         5         4
+ 49.62 x  - 122.4 x - 178 x - 79.13 x + 84.89 x + 144.9 x + 5.123 x
3         2
- 156.9 x + 88.21 x - 14.82 x + 1.059

lambda = 1.00e-03
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16         15         14         13         12          11
6.364 x  - 1.596 x  - 4.807 x  - 4.778 x  - 2.776 x  + 0.1238 x
10         9         8         7          6         5
+ 2.977 x  + 4.926 x + 5.203 x + 3.248 x - 0.9291 x - 6.011 x
4         3         2
- 8.395 x - 2.655 x + 9.861 x - 2.225 x + 0.5636

lambda = 1.00e+02
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16          15          14          13          12         11
-0.301 x  - 0.2802 x  - 0.2604 x  - 0.2413 x  - 0.2229 x  - 0.205 x
10          9          8          7          6           5
- 0.1874 x  - 0.1699 x - 0.1524 x - 0.1344 x - 0.1156 x - 0.09534 x
4           3           2
- 0.07304 x - 0.04842 x - 0.02284 x - 0.002257 x + 0.6416




In :

data




Out:

X1
Y

0.0395789449501
0.587050191026

0.0415680996791
0.648655851372

0.0724319480801
0.307803309485

0.150289044622
0.310748447417

0.161334144502
0.237409625496

0.191956312795
0.705017157224

0.232833917145
0.461716676992

0.259900980166
0.383260507851

0.380145814869
1.06517691429

0.432444723508
1.03184706949

[30 rows x 2 columns]Note: Only the head of the SFrame is printed.You can use print_rows(num_rows=m, num_columns=n) to print more rows and columns.



## Perform a ridge fit of a degree-16 polynomial using a "good" penalty strength

We will learn about cross validation later in this course as a way to select a good value of the tuning parameter (penalty strength) lambda. Here, we consider "leave one out" (LOO) cross validation, which one can show approximates average mean square error (MSE). As a result, choosing lambda to minimize the LOO error is equivalent to choosing lambda to minimize an approximation to average MSE.



In :

# LOO cross validation -- return the average MSE
def loo(data, deg, l2_penalty_values):
# Create polynomial features
data = polynomial_features(data, deg)

# Create as many folds for cross validatation as number of data points
num_folds = len(data)
folds = graphlab.cross_validation.KFold(data,num_folds)

# for each value of l2_penalty, fit a model for each fold and compute average MSE
l2_penalty_mse = []
min_mse = None
best_l2_penalty = None
for l2_penalty in l2_penalty_values:
next_mse = 0.0
for train_set, validation_set in folds:
# train model
model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(train_set,target='Y',
l2_penalty=l2_penalty,
validation_set=None,verbose=False)

# predict on validation set
y_test_predicted = model.predict(validation_set)
# compute squared error
next_mse += ((y_test_predicted-validation_set['Y'])**2).sum()

# save squared error in list of MSE for each l2_penalty
next_mse = next_mse/num_folds
l2_penalty_mse.append(next_mse)
if min_mse is None or next_mse < min_mse:
min_mse = next_mse
best_l2_penalty = l2_penalty

return l2_penalty_mse,best_l2_penalty



Run LOO cross validation for "num" values of lambda, on a log scale



In :

l2_penalty_values = numpy.logspace(-4, 10, num=10)
l2_penalty_mse,best_l2_penalty = loo(data, 16, l2_penalty_values)



Plot results of estimating LOO for each value of lambda



In :

plt.plot(l2_penalty_values,l2_penalty_mse,'k-')
plt.xlabel('$\ell_2$ penalty')
plt.ylabel('LOO cross validation error')
plt.xscale('log')
plt.yscale('log')






Find the value of lambda, $\lambda_{\mathrm{CV}}$, that minimizes the LOO cross validation error, and plot resulting fit



In :

best_l2_penalty




Out:

0.12915496650148839




In :

model = polynomial_ridge_regression(data, deg=16, l2_penalty=best_l2_penalty)
print_coefficients(model)




Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16         15          14          13          12           11
1.345 x  + 1.141 x  + 0.9069 x  + 0.6447 x  + 0.3569 x  + 0.04947 x
10          9          8         7         6         5
- 0.2683 x  - 0.5821 x - 0.8701 x - 1.099 x - 1.216 x - 1.145 x
4           3          2
- 0.7837 x - 0.07406 x + 0.7614 x + 0.7703 x + 0.3918




In :

plot_poly_predictions(data,model)






# Lasso Regression

Lasso regression jointly shrinks coefficients to avoid overfitting, and implicitly performs feature selection by setting some coefficients exactly to 0 for sufficiently large penalty strength lambda (here called "L1_penalty"). In particular, lasso takes the RSS term of standard least squares and adds a 1-norm cost of the coefficients $\|w\|$.

Define our function to solve the lasso objective for a polynomial regression model of any degree:



In :

def polynomial_lasso_regression(data, deg, l1_penalty):
model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(polynomial_features(data,deg),
target='Y', l2_penalty=0.,
l1_penalty=l1_penalty,
validation_set=None,
solver='fista', verbose=False,
max_iterations=3000, convergence_threshold=1e-10)
return model



## Explore the lasso solution as a function of a few different penalty strengths

We refer to lambda in the lasso case below as "l1_penalty"



In :

for l1_penalty in [0.0001, 0.01, 0.1, 10]:
model = polynomial_lasso_regression(data, deg=16, l1_penalty=l1_penalty)
print 'l1_penalty = %e' % l1_penalty
print 'number of nonzeros = %d' % (model.coefficients['value']).nnz()
print_coefficients(model)
print '\n'
plt.figure()
plot_poly_predictions(data,model)
plt.title('LASSO, lambda = %.2e, # nonzeros = %d' % (l1_penalty, (model.coefficients['value']).nnz()))




l1_penalty = 1.000000e-04
number of nonzeros = 17
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16        15         14         13         12         11
29.02 x  + 1.35 x  - 12.72 x  - 16.93 x  - 13.82 x  - 6.698 x
10         9         8         7         6         5
+ 1.407 x  + 8.939 x + 12.88 x + 11.44 x + 3.759 x - 8.062 x
4         3         2
- 16.28 x - 7.682 x + 17.86 x - 4.384 x + 0.685

l1_penalty = 1.000000e-02
number of nonzeros = 14
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16            15           11          10         9          8
-1.18 x  - 0.001318 x  + 0.08745 x  + 0.7389 x  + 3.828 x + 0.4761 x
7            6          5         4             3         2
+ 0.1282 x + 0.001952 x - 0.6151 x - 10.11 x - 0.0003954 x + 6.686 x - 1.28 x + 0.5056

l1_penalty = 1.000000e-01
number of nonzeros = 5
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
16         6         5
2.21 x  - 1.002 x - 2.962 x + 1.216 x + 0.3473

l1_penalty = 1.000000e+01
number of nonzeros = 2
Learned polynomial for degree 16:
9
-1.526 x + 0.5755



Above: We see that as lambda increases, we get sparser and sparser solutions. However, even for our non-sparse case for lambda=0.0001, the fit of our high-order polynomial is not too wild. This is because, like in ridge, coefficients included in the lasso solution are shrunk relative to those of the least squares (unregularized) solution. This leads to better behavior even without sparsity. Of course, as lambda goes to 0, the amount of this shrinkage decreases and the lasso solution approaches the (wild) least squares solution.



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