Think Bayes

This notebook presents example code and exercise solutions for Think Bayes.

MIT License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT



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# Configure Jupyter so figures appear in the notebook
%matplotlib inline

# Configure Jupyter to display the assigned value after an assignment
%config InteractiveShell.ast_node_interactivity='last_expr_or_assign'

# import classes from thinkbayes2
from thinkbayes2 import Hist, Pmf, Suite, Beta
import thinkplot

import numpy as np

The skeet problem

At the 2016 Summer Olympics in the Women's Skeet event, Kim Rhode faced Wei Meng in the bronze medal match. They each hit 15 of 25 skeets, sending the match into sudden death. In the first round, both hit 1 of 2 skeets. In the next two rounds, they each hit 2 skeets. Finally, in the fourth round, Rhode hit 2 and Wei hit 1, so Rhode won the bronze medal, making her the first Summer Olympian to win an individual medal at six consecutive summer games.

But after all that shooting, what is the probability that Rhode is actually a better shooter than Wei? If the same match were held again, what is the probability that Rhode would win?

As always, you will have to make some modeling decisions, but one approach is to estimate, for each shooter, the probability of hitting a skeet. Then, to estimate the probability that Rhode is a better shooter, you can draw samples from the two posterior distributions and compare them. To estimate the probability of winning a rematch, you could draw samples from the posterior distributions and simulate a round of 25 shots.



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