How does the age of the pilot affect the probability of having an accident?

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In [1]:

%matplotlib inline

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In [2]:

import sqlite3
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import matplotlib as mpl

from flight_safety.queries import get_flight_crew_accidents

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In [3]:

con = sqlite3.connect('data/avall.db')

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In [4]:

flight_crew = get_flight_crew_accidents(con)

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Age distribution of pilots who have had an accident

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In [5]:

flight_crew.crew_age.plot(kind='box');

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In [6]:

age_bins = np.arange(14, 85, 5)
flight_crew['crew_age'].hist(bins=age_bins, ec='white', grid=False)
plt.xlabel('age')
plt.ylabel('number of accidents');

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Active FAA Pilot Certificates Held by Category and Age Group of Holder according to GAMMA databook

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In [7]:

[0, 572, 5199, 12003, 15507, 18337,
23058, 25882, 24220, 16824, 10184,
4284, 1766, 787]
)

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In [8]:

age_group = pd.cut(flight_crew['crew_age'], age_bins)
gby_age = flight_crew['ev_id'].groupby(age_group).count()

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In [9]:

accident_rate_age.plot.bar()
plt.xlabel('crew age');

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It seems that some people have investigated this issue before:

[...] the accident rate of airline transport rated (ATR) pilots aged 55–59 is approximately one-third of that of pilots with the same rating who are aged 20–24.

Handbook of Aviation Human Factors, Second Edition. John A. Wise,V. David Hopkin,Daniel J.