In [108]:

    

%matplotlib inline

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from fbprophet import Prophet


    

In [109]:

    

df = pd.read_csv('piwik-export-main-metrics_2015-07-31_2017-05-26.csv',
                 sep=',', parse_dates=['Date'], usecols=('Date', 'Visits'))

df.head()


    

    
Out[109]:






  

    

      

      
Date
      
Visits
    
  
  

    

      
0
      
2015-08-02
      
1
    
    

      
1
      
2015-08-03
      
3
    
    

      
2
      
2015-08-04
      
6
    
    

      
3
      
2015-08-05
      
3
    
    

      
4
      
2015-08-06
      
10
    
  

In [110]:

    

df.set_index('Date').plot()


    

    
Out[110]:





<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1142f0f28>






    

In [111]:

    

df.columns = ['ds', 'y']
df.head()


    

    
Out[111]:






  

    

      

      
ds
      
y
    
  
  

    

      
0
      
2015-08-02
      
1
    
    

      
1
      
2015-08-03
      
3
    
    

      
2
      
2015-08-04
      
6
    
    

      
3
      
2015-08-05
      
3
    
    

      
4
      
2015-08-06
      
10
    
  

In [112]:

    

prophet = Prophet()
prophet.fit(df)

future = prophet.make_future_dataframe(periods=365, freq='W')
forecast = prophet.predict(future)

prophet.plot(forecast)


    

    
Out[112]:












    

In [113]:

    

prophet.plot_components(forecast);


    

In [114]:

    

import datetime
from dateutil import rrule

gtalug_meeting_days = list(rrule.rrule(freq=rrule.MONTHLY, dtstart=datetime.date(2015, 8, 2),
                                       until=datetime.date(2017, 5, 26), byweekday=(rrule.TU), bysetpos=2))

meetings = pd.DataFrame({
    'holiday': 'meeting',
    'ds': pd.to_datetime(gtalug_meeting_days),
    'lower_window': 0,
    'upper_window': 5,
})

meetings.tail()


    

    
Out[114]:






  

    

      

      
ds
      
holiday
      
lower_window
      
upper_window
    
  
  

    

      
17
      
2017-01-10
      
meeting
      
0
      
5
    
    

      
18
      
2017-02-14
      
meeting
      
0
      
5
    
    

      
19
      
2017-03-14
      
meeting
      
0
      
5
    
    

      
20
      
2017-04-11
      
meeting
      
0
      
5
    
    

      
21
      
2017-05-09
      
meeting
      
0
      
5
    
  

In [115]:

    

prophet = Prophet(holidays=meetings).fit(df)

future = prophet.make_future_dataframe(periods=365)
forecast = prophet.predict(future)

prophet.plot(forecast)


    

    
Out[115]:












    

In [116]:

    

prophet.plot_components(forecast)


    

    
Out[116]: