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# This Python 3 environment comes with many helpful analytics libraries installed
# It is defined by the kaggle/python docker image: https://github.com/kaggle/docker-python
# For example, here's several helpful packages to load in
import numpy as np # linear algebra
import pandas as pd # data processing, CSV file I/O (e.g. pd.read_csv)
# Input data files are available in the "../input/" directory.
# For example, running this (by clicking run or pressing Shift+Enter) will list the files in the input directory
from subprocess import check_output
print(check_output(["ls", "../input"]).decode("utf8"))
# Any results you write to the current directory are saved as output.
First we import some datasets of interest
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#the seed information
df_seeds = pd.read_csv('../input/WNCAATourneySeeds_SampleTourney2018.csv')
#tour information
df_tour = pd.read_csv('../input/WRegularSeasonCompactResults_PrelimData2018.csv')
Now we separate the winners from the losers and organize our dataset
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df_seeds['seed_int'] = df_seeds['Seed'].apply( lambda x : int(x[1:3]) )
df_winseeds = df_seeds.loc[:, ['TeamID', 'Season', 'seed_int']].rename(columns={'TeamID':'WTeamID', 'seed_int':'WSeed'})
df_lossseeds = df_seeds.loc[:, ['TeamID', 'Season', 'seed_int']].rename(columns={'TeamID':'LTeamID', 'seed_int':'LSeed'})
df_dummy = pd.merge(left=df_tour, right=df_winseeds, how='left', on=['Season', 'WTeamID'])
df_concat = pd.merge(left=df_dummy, right=df_lossseeds, on=['Season', 'LTeamID'])
Now we match the detailed results to the merge dataset above
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df_concat['DiffSeed'] = df_concat[['LSeed', 'WSeed']].apply(lambda x : 0 if x[0] == x[1] else 1, axis = 1)
Here we get our submission info
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#prepares sample submission
df_sample_sub = pd.read_csv('../input/WSampleSubmissionStage2.csv')
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df_sample_sub['Season'] = df_sample_sub['ID'].apply(lambda x : int(x.split('_')[0]) )
df_sample_sub['TeamID1'] = df_sample_sub['ID'].apply(lambda x : int(x.split('_')[1]) )
df_sample_sub['TeamID2'] = df_sample_sub['ID'].apply(lambda x : int(x.split('_')[2]) )
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winners = df_concat.rename( columns = { 'WTeamID' : 'TeamID1',
'LTeamID' : 'TeamID2',
'WScore' : 'Team1_Score',
'LScore' : 'Team2_Score'}).drop(['WSeed', 'LSeed', 'WLoc'], axis = 1)
winners['Result'] = 1.0
losers = df_concat.rename( columns = { 'WTeamID' : 'TeamID2',
'LTeamID' : 'TeamID1',
'WScore' : 'Team2_Score',
'LScore' : 'Team1_Score'}).drop(['WSeed', 'LSeed', 'WLoc'], axis = 1)
losers['Result'] = 0.0
train = pd.concat( [winners, losers], axis = 0).reset_index(drop = True)
train['Score_Ratio'] = train['Team1_Score'] / train['Team2_Score']
train['Score_Total'] = train['Team1_Score'] + train['Team2_Score']
train['Score_Pct'] = train['Team1_Score'] / train['Score_Total']
We will only consider years relevant to our test submission
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df_sample_sub['Season'].unique()
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Now lets just look at TeamID2, or just the second team info.
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train_test_inner = pd.merge( train.loc[ train['Season'].isin([2018]), : ].reset_index(drop = True),
df_sample_sub.drop(['ID', 'Pred'], axis = 1),
on = ['Season', 'TeamID1', 'TeamID2'], how = 'inner' )
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train_test_inner.head()
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From the inner join, we will create data per team id to estimate the parameters we are missing that are independent of the year. Essentially, we are trying to estimate the average behavior of the team across the year.
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team1d_num_ot = train_test_inner.groupby(['Season', 'TeamID1'])['NumOT'].median().reset_index()\
.set_index('Season').rename(columns = {'NumOT' : 'NumOT1'})
team2d_num_ot = train_test_inner.groupby(['Season', 'TeamID2'])['NumOT'].median().reset_index()\
.set_index('Season').rename(columns = {'NumOT' : 'NumOT2'})
num_ot = team1d_num_ot.join(team2d_num_ot).reset_index()
#sum the number of ot calls and subtract by one to prevent overcounting
num_ot['NumOT'] = num_ot[['NumOT1', 'NumOT2']].apply(lambda x : round( x.sum() ), axis = 1 )
num_ot.head()
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Here we look at the comparable statistics. For the TeamID2 column, we would consider the inverse of the ratio, and 1 minus the score attempt percentage.
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team1d_score_spread = train_test_inner.groupby(['Season', 'TeamID1'])[['Score_Ratio', 'Score_Pct']].median().reset_index()\
.set_index('Season').rename(columns = {'Score_Ratio' : 'Score_Ratio1', 'Score_Pct' : 'Score_Pct1'})
team2d_score_spread = train_test_inner.groupby(['Season', 'TeamID2'])[['Score_Ratio', 'Score_Pct']].median().reset_index()\
.set_index('Season').rename(columns = {'Score_Ratio' : 'Score_Ratio2', 'Score_Pct' : 'Score_Pct2'})
score_spread = team1d_score_spread.join(team2d_score_spread).reset_index()
#geometric mean of score ratio of team 1 and inverse of team 2
score_spread['Score_Ratio'] = score_spread[['Score_Ratio1', 'Score_Ratio2']].apply(lambda x : ( x[0] * ( x[1] ** -1.0) ), axis = 1 ) ** 0.5
#harmonic mean of score pct
score_spread['Score_Pct'] = score_spread[['Score_Pct1', 'Score_Pct2']].apply(lambda x : 0.5*( x[0] ** -1.0 ) + 0.5*( 1.0 - x[1] ) ** -1.0, axis = 1 ) ** -1.0
score_spread.head()
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Now lets create a model just solely based on the inner group and predict those probabilities.
We will get the teams with the missing result.
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X_train = train_test_inner.loc[:, ['Season', 'NumOT', 'Score_Ratio', 'Score_Pct']]
train_labels = train_test_inner['Result']
train_test_outer = pd.merge( train.loc[ train['Season'].isin([2014, 2015, 2016, 2017]), : ].reset_index(drop = True),
df_sample_sub.drop(['ID', 'Pred'], axis = 1),
on = ['Season', 'TeamID1', 'TeamID2'], how = 'outer' )
train_test_outer = train_test_outer.loc[ train_test_outer['Result'].isnull(),
['TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Season']]
train_test_missing = pd.merge( pd.merge( score_spread.loc[:, ['TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Season', 'Score_Ratio', 'Score_Pct']],
train_test_outer, on = ['TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Season']),
num_ot.loc[:, ['TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Season', 'NumOT']],
on = ['TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Season'])
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X_test = train_test_missing.loc[:, ['Season', 'NumOT', 'Score_Ratio', 'Score_Pct']]
n = X_train.shape[0]
train_test_merge = pd.concat( [X_train, X_test], axis = 0 ).reset_index(drop = True)
train_test_merge = pd.concat( [pd.get_dummies( train_test_merge['Season'].astype(object) ),
train_test_merge.drop('Season', axis = 1) ], axis = 1 )
train_test_merge = pd.concat( [pd.get_dummies( train_test_merge['NumOT'].astype(object) ),
train_test_merge.drop('NumOT', axis = 1) ], axis = 1 )
X_train = train_test_merge.loc[:(n - 1), :].reset_index(drop = True)
X_test = train_test_merge.loc[n:, :].reset_index(drop = True)
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x_max = X_train.max()
x_min = X_train.min()
X_train = ( X_train - x_min ) / ( x_max - x_min + 1e-14)
X_test = ( X_test - x_min ) / ( x_max - x_min + 1e-14)
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train_labels.value_counts()
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X_train.head()
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from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegressionCV
model = LogisticRegressionCV(cv=80,scoring="neg_log_loss",random_state=1
#,penalty="l1"
#,Cs= Cs_#list(np.arange(1e-7,1e-9,-0.5e-9)) # [0.5,0.1,0.01,0.001] #list(np.power(1, np.arange(-10, 10)))
#,max_iter=1000, tol=1e-11
#,solver="liblinear"
#,n_jobs=4
)
model.fit(X_train, train_labels)
#---
Cs = model.Cs_
list(np.power(10.0, np.arange(-10, 10)))
dir(model)
sco = model.scores_[1].mean(axis=0)
#---
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.plot(Cs
#np.log10(Cs)
,sco)
# plt.ylabel('some numbers')
plt.show()
sco.min()
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Cs_= list(np.arange(1.1e-9 - 5e-11
,1.051e-9
,0.2e-13))
len(Cs_)
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Cs_= list(np.arange(1e-11
,9.04e-11#1.0508e-9
,0.2e-12))
len(Cs_)
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#Cs_= list(np.arange(5.6e-13 - ( (0.01e-13)*1)
# ,5.61e-13 - ( (0.01e-13)*1)#1.0508e-9
# ,0.2e-15))
#len(Cs_)
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Cs_= list(np.arange(1e-11
,5.5e-11#1.0508e-9
,0.2e-12))
len(Cs_)
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Cs_= list(np.arange(1e-14
,5.5e-11#1.0508e-9
,0.2e-12))
len(Cs_)#awsome
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#Cs_= list(np.arange(1.5e-11
# ,2.53e-11#1.0508e-9
# ,0.2e-13)) #+[3.761e-11]
#len(Cs_)
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#X_train.dtypes
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Cs_= list(np.arange(1e-15
,0.51e-10 #1.0508e-9
,0.1e-12))
len(Cs_)#new again
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Cs_= list(np.arange(9e-14
,10.1e-13 #1.0508e-9
,0.1e-14))
len(Cs_)#new again cont. lowerlevel
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Cs_= list(np.linspace(1e-19
,0.610e-11 #1.0508e-9
,500))
len(Cs_)#new again cont. lowerlevel
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Cs_= list(np.logspace(-12.5715
,-12.5714 #1.0508e-9
,500))
len(Cs_)#new again cont. lowerlevel
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#LogisticRegressionCV(Cs=10, class_weight=None, cv=107, dual=False,
# fit_intercept=True, intercept_scaling=1.0, max_iter=100,
# multi_class='ovr', n_jobs=1, penalty='l2', random_state=2,
# refit=True, scoring='neg_log_loss', solver='lbfgs', tol=0.0001,
# verbose=0) #-0.7
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegressionCV
model = LogisticRegressionCV(cv=80,scoring="neg_log_loss",random_state=1
#,penalty="l1"
,Cs= Cs_#list(np.arange(1e-7,1e-9,-0.5e-9)) # [0.5,0.1,0.01,0.001] #list(np.power(1, np.arange(-10, 10)))
,max_iter=1000, tol=1e-11
#,solver="liblinear"
,n_jobs=4)
model.fit(X_train, train_labels)
#---
Cs = model.Cs_
list(np.power(10.0, np.arange(-10, 10)))
dir(model)
sco = model.scores_[1].mean(axis=0)
#---
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.plot(#Cs
np.log10(Cs)
,sco)
# plt.ylabel('some numbers')
index_min = np.argmin(sco)
Cs_[index_min]
plt.axvline(x=np.log10(Cs_[index_min]))
plt.show()
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index_min = np.argmin(sco)
Cs_[index_min] #3.761e-11
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#list(np.power(10.0, np.arange(-10, 10)))
#list(np.arange(0.5,1e-4,-0.05))
print(sco.max())
#-0.6931471779248422
print(sco.min() < -0.693270048530996)
print(sco.min()+0.693270048530996)
sco.min()
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.plot(model.scores_[1])
# plt.ylabel('some numbers')
plt.show()
Here we store our probabilities
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train_test_inner['Pred1'] = model.predict_proba(X_train)[:,1]
train_test_missing['Pred1'] = model.predict_proba(X_test)[:,1]
We merge our predictions
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sub = pd.merge(df_sample_sub,
pd.concat( [train_test_missing.loc[:, ['Season', 'TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Pred1']],
train_test_inner.loc[:, ['Season', 'TeamID1', 'TeamID2', 'Pred1']] ],
axis = 0).reset_index(drop = True),
on = ['Season', 'TeamID1', 'TeamID2'], how = 'outer')
We get the 'average' probability of success for each team
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team1_probs = sub.groupby('TeamID1')['Pred1'].apply(lambda x : (x ** -1.0).mean() ** -1.0 ).fillna(0.5).to_dict()
team2_probs = sub.groupby('TeamID2')['Pred1'].apply(lambda x : (x ** -1.0).mean() ** -1.0 ).fillna(0.5).to_dict()
Any missing value for the prediciton will be imputed with the product of the probabilities calculated above. We assume these are independent events.
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sub['Pred'] = sub[['TeamID1', 'TeamID2','Pred1']]\
.apply(lambda x : team1_probs.get(x[0]) * ( 1 - team2_probs.get(x[1]) ) if np.isnan(x[2]) else x[2],
axis = 1)
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sub = sub.drop_duplicates(subset=["ID"], keep='first')
sub[['ID', 'Pred']].to_csv('sub.csv', index = False)
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sub[['ID', 'Pred']].head(20)
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