In [22]:
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from hmmlearn.hmm import GaussianHMM, GMMHMM  # this one has deprecation error, unsolved
# from sklearn import hmm  deprecated from skitlearn 0.17

In [5]:
# download the sample data here: https://github.com/matplotlib/mpl_finance/tree/master/examples/data
sample_file = "yahoo_finance_intc.csv"
sample_data = pd.read_csv(sample_file)
print sample_data.head()
print sample_data.shape


         Date      Open      High       Low     Close  Adj Close    Volume
0  1995-01-03  3.976563  4.000975  3.937500  3.984375   2.669861  41721600
1  1995-01-04  4.000000  4.023438  3.953125  3.976563   2.664625  41865600
2  1995-01-05  3.984375  4.062500  3.976563  4.007813   2.685566  60480000
3  1995-01-06  4.007813  4.070313  4.000000  4.062500   2.722212  56316800
4  1995-01-09  4.054688  4.125000  4.054688  4.125000   2.764089  75056000
(2335, 7)

In [12]:
# extract needed data
close_value = sample_data['Close']
close_diff  = np.diff(np.array(close_value)) # t+1 value - t value

dates = sample_data['Date'][1:]
close_value = close_value[1:]
volume = sample_data['Volume'][1:]

In [15]:
# hidden markov model
## training data
X = np.column_stack([close_diff, volume])  
X


Out[15]:
array([[ -7.81200000e-03,   4.18656000e+07],
       [  3.12500000e-02,   6.04800000e+07],
       [  5.46870000e-02,   5.63168000e+07],
       ..., 
       [ -2.79999000e-01,   7.01478000e+07],
       [ -6.49999000e-01,   7.26802000e+07],
       [ -2.50000000e-01,   7.17914000e+07]])

In [24]:
## Gaussian HMM
## all tunable params: http://hmmlearn.readthedocs.io/en/stable/api.html#hmmlearn.hmm.GaussianHMM

print 'running Gaussian HMM...'
model = GaussianHMM(n_components=4, covariance_type="diag", n_iter=7).fit(X)
hidden_states = model.predict(X)
print 'done'


running Gaussian HMM...
done
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)

In [28]:
print 'running Gaussian Mixture HMM...'
model = GMMHMM(n_components=4, covariance_type="diag", n_iter=7).fit(X)
hidden_states = model.predict(X)
print 'done'


running Gaussian Mixture HMM...
done
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:58: DeprecationWarning: Class GMM is deprecated; The class GMM is deprecated in 0.18 and will be  removed in 0.20. Use class GaussianMixture instead.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_type is deprecated; The function distribute_covar_matrix_to_match_covariance_typeis deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)
/Users/hanhanwu/anaconda/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sklearn/utils/deprecation.py:77: DeprecationWarning: Function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated; The function log_multivariate_normal_density is deprecated in 0.18 and will be removed in 0.20.
  warnings.warn(msg, category=DeprecationWarning)